Climate Change Will Burn, Par ch, Drown And Wash Away South Asia – Part 2

The use of fossil fuels by capitalism has created winners and losers, and this process will deepen with more warming. Capitalism has facilitated the Global North and the bourgeoisie in the Global South to amass wealth, while the working people, the vast majority in the Global South, and vulnerable populations in the Global North are the losers. South Asia will be one of the biggest losers as it is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to its geography and low resilience of its population.

Winners and losers

The Global North, with 16% of the global population today, consumed 69% of all fossil fuels used since the Industrial Revolution, whereas the Global South, with 84% of the world’s population today, consumed only 31%. The average per capita GDP of high-income countries in 2024 was US$50,444, i.e., ~10-fold greater than that of low- and middle-income countries (US$5,975), and ~20 times that of South Asia (US$2,692) (World Bank).

The Global South is in a Catch-22 situation. The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is 80-130 GtCO₂,which will be exhausted before 2030 (UNEP, 2025. Emissions Gap Report 2025). If developing nations burn more fossil fuels to ‘develop’, they will contribute to warming that will exceed 1.5–2 °C. If they restrict their emissions, they will remain materially behind the developed countries for a very long time.

The gap between the per capita cumulative (1751-2024) energy use, and consequently per capita cumulative CO₂ emissions, of the Global North is ~1 order of magnitude (10-fold) greater than that of the Global South. The gap between the material living standard of the Global North and South is much too large for the Global South to catch up with the Global North in ~5 years remaining to breach the 1.5 ^oC compliant carbon space.

Per capita cumulative energy use and CO₂ emissions in 2024

Sources: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?utm_source, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions

The Global North is clearly the winner, and the Global South is the loser in the development vs. sustainability game.

Climate change will hit South Asia the hardest

South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) is one of two regions that will be most affected by climate change, the other being the Sahel region in Africa. South Asia has a quarter of the world’s population but has emitted only 3.6% of the world’s cumulative emissions (1751-2024).

South Asia’s vulnerability is caused by two factors. The first is its geography. Its large land mass makes heat waves more severe, and its river deltas promote increased sea rise. Greater snow and glacier melt with warming will decrease water flow in snow-fed rivers and consequently cause water stress.

The second reason is its low economic development, which makes its population less resilient to meet climate change impacts. Its current per capita GDP is about a fifth of the global average (US$13,664 in 2024) and its low per capita energy use, reflected in low per capita CO₂ emissions, is less than a third of the global average (2024 global average per capita–energy use = 1.86 toe/person, 2023 global average CO₂ per capita emissions = 4.7 tCO₂/person).

South Asia will be affected by all the impacts listed in Part 1 of this article. Some impacts may not hit some countries, e.g., sea rise will not affect Nepal and Bhutan, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) will not impact Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The table below summarises the major climate impacts on each South Asian country.

Major climate change impacts on South Asian countries

Detailing the impacts in each South Asian country will occupy too much space. So, except for India, one major impact that will batter each set of countries is discussed below.

Sea rise will drown Bangladesh and the Maldives

Even though the emissions of Bangladesh and the Maldives are minuscule (0.1% and <0.01% of the world’s cumulative CO₂ emissions, respectively), by the year 2100, a large portion of the Sundarbans mangrove forests in Bangladesh and India and almost all of the Maldives will be under the sea.

Fifty million Bangladeshi climate refugees will leave the country by 2050. That number will double by the end of the 21^st Century. The refugees will be forced to migrate within and outside Bangladesh, causing considerable stress and possible conflict in South Asia. The displaced population would have lost their livelihood, and as refugees, they will be at greater risk of falling ill, and be subject to indignity and abuse, e.g., trafficking of women and children, etc.

A set of researchers in Telangana recently chanced upon the story of a widow living near Vikarabad town. Her farmer husband committed suicide as he could not repay a private loan due to bad harvests in two consecutive years. As the money lender could not retrieve the loan from the widow, he suggested to her that she or her teenage daughter visit him in private.

Qazi Khohuzzaman Ahmad, an economist and a COP negotiator for Bangladesh, says that sea ingress is turning the water for drinking and irrigation saline in the Sundarbans area. Consequently, agriculture, fisheries and other livelihoods are being affected. Human and animal habitats, domesticated animals and wildlife will be lost.

With sea rise, the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans will erode, and with it, the protection they offer Bangladesh against cyclonic storm surges will diminish. Building a sea wall will cost US$30 billion. Even that is a temporary solution as the sea will get angrier over time. He sees no solution for Bangladesh’s plight. For no fault of theirs, Bangladesh will suffer disproportionately in comparison to its emissions.

Mujibur Rahman, a farmer from Shariat, a place close to Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, has a solution. He feels that India should accept climate refugees from Bangladesh. On compassionate grounds, why not? At least until a permanent solution is found. India had accepted 10 million refugees in 1971 before Bangladesh was liberated, and India touted the phrase Vasudaiva Kutumkam (the whole world is a family) when it hosted the G20 meet in 2023.

Sea ingress into Bangladesh for a 3 ^oC warming (Source: Climate Central) and a beautiful Maldivian island gone by 2100

By 2100, the Maldives will become all but uninhabited as sea rise will drown almost the entire island state, as 80% of the Maldivian islands lie below 1 m above mean sea level. The entire population of the Maldives will become climate refugees (current population ~500,000).

Cyclones

As global temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of cyclones hitting Bangladesh and India will increase, and there will be a greater number of extreme weather events. Cyclone Remal, which battered the Sundarbans coast in Bangladesh and West Bengal in May 2024, is a good example of nature’s fury that will be seen in future. A million people in Bangladesh and another 200,000 people in India had to be evacuated from the coast to put them out of harm’s way.

Cyclone Ditwah battered Sri Lanka and Southern India in late November-early December 2025. Ditwah’s impact on Sri Lanka was particularly severe. The heavy flooding and landslides it caused in Sri Lanka killed over 600 people and caused over US$1.6 billion in losses in the country.

Water stress will parch Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka; and possible future water conflicts

Despite their very small contribution to global warming, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will be severely water-stressed, and by 2040-50 will be at high risk of having repeated and severe droughts. The cumulative CO₂ emissions of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are 0.01%, 0.3% and 0.03% of the world’s cumulative emissions, respectively. Yet, the regions above Herat and Islamabad, around Karachi, and southern Sri Lanka, will be severely water-stressed. The population at risk of hunger is expected to be 38.1%, 12,6% and 17.7% in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, respectively.

Global warming is expected to significantly impact snow and glacier melt in the Himalayas. As the glaciers melt, they will initially increase meltwater flow in snow-fed rivers, followed by a decline. While glacial meltwill impact all the major snow-fed South Asian rivers, its impact on the Brahmaputra and the Ganga will be less, as the glacial and snow melt contribute only ~8-21% of their discharge. The impact on the Indus and the Amu Darya will be greater as their dependence on glacial and snow melt is ~60-77%. With just a third of Ganga’s discharge, the Indus irrigates an area nearly as large as the Ganga does.

Basin characteristics and snow/glacier melt contribution to downstream discharge

(Sources: https://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1105/2015/tc-9-1105-2015.pdf,

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1429-0)

As the water discharge in the Indus and the Amu Darya decreases, large parts of Pakistan and the northeastern parts of Afghanistan will become severely water-stressed, and the food and water security of an estimated 60 million people will be compromised. The future of the people from these regions is not well understood. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that if adequate food and water aid and alternative livelihoods are not provided, these regions may generate climate refugees.

Pakistan is critically dependent on the Indus, its only major river. A decrease of even 5% of the Indus flow will impact Pakistan’s agriculture and farm incomes, nutrition standards, and the economy. In the coming decades, as the water flow in the Indus decreases, Pakistan’s Sindh and Punjab provinces may come into conflict over water sharing, akin to the water conflicts between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu over the Cauvery River water.

If Pakistan is destabilised because of a potential conflict between two of its provinces, it will have a domino effect on all of South Asia. The world will then have to worry about the fate of Pakistan’s strategic assets and the various possible risk scenarios that may arise.

Does Pakistan have a solution? “No,” says Mohammad Arif Goheer, who was the Principal Scientific Officer in the Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan. He believes that while the Pakistan Government is aware of the high risk that water stress will cause in the near future, there has been no effort to study its severity or its impact.

The Himalayas are a huge water tower in Asia. This mountain range has supplied water to East, Southeast and South Asia through the numerous rivers that originate in the Himalayas and flow in all directions. The water of these rivers has nurtured ancient civilisations in East and South Asia.

Major Himalayan rivers

As the Himalayan glaciers melt and the water in the Himalayan rivers decreases, there is the risk of some nations attempting to gain greater control over the Himalayan rivers to get more water, a sure recipe for conflict in the Himalayas.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

As a glacier melts, the water volume in a glacial lake increases and exerts greater pressure on the moraine dam (consisting of rock and debris) that holds the lake. At some point, the dam breaks and releases millions of tonnes of water, causing a GLOF. Villages, fields, and everything else up to 100 km downstream of the glacial lake are washed away.

On 3 October 2023, the moraine dam on the South Lohnok Lake (5,200 m AMSL) in Upper Sikkim gave way to cause a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The flood waters killed 44 persons, triggered a landslide 30 km downstream of the lake and damaged three dams and hydroelectric projects on the Teesta River that are over 65 km from the lake. A GLOF that occurred in 2019 smashed a powerhouse at Golen Gol.

With climate change, the frequency of GLOF occurrence is expected to increase in the Himalayas. A recent study compiled an inventory of 62 GLOFs that have occurred in the Himalayas in the last 80 years. Of these, 39 GLOFs could be given a date. The table indicates that GLOF frequency has increased in recent times.

Frequency of GLOF occurrence in the last century (Source: Ref xxxiv)

Bhutan and Nepal, each with cumulative CO₂ emissions that are less than 0.01% of the world’s cumulative emissions, will be very vulnerable to GLOF events.

Extreme Weather Events

With 17.8% of the world’s population, India’s contribution to global cumulative emissions is 3.2%. Yet, India will be impacted by many climate change impacts—sea rise, water stress, GLOFs, extreme weather events (abnormally high temperatures or precipitation), floods, drought, cyclones, significant crop yield losses, heat stress, etc. Of these, a large number of extreme weather events occurred in India in the last 15 years. As warming intensifies, more such events will happen.

Extreme weather events in India in the 21^st Century

Over 6,000 lives were lost in the 2013 Kedarnath cloudburst, 500 people in the 2018 very heavy rainfall and landslide events in Idukki, Kerala, and 300 people in the 2024 Wayanad Landslide Disaster. Landslides occurred in hill plantation areas of Kerala, as plantations lack the soil gripping capacity of forests.

Site of the 30 July 2024 Wayanad Landslide Disaster that killed 300 persons

The August 2022 Pakistan floods, which submerged a third of the nation, killed more than 1,000 people and displaced 33 million people, could have been managed much better if there had been greater cooperation in South Asia.

Climate change-related morbidity and mortality in India

High temperatures cause heat stress, whose direct effects are fatigue and heat stroke; and the indirect effects are reduced work performance, increased accidents, reproductive problems, heart and lung strain, and an increase in disease-carrying vectors. A study on heat stress and mortality done in Surat concludes that “There is an increase of 11% all-cause mortality when the temperature crossed 40 °C.” Another recent study established a correlation between high temperatures and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in rural areas. To arrive at its conclusions, it reviewed studies in several continents—Asia, North and South America and Africa.

One paper estimates that the annual death toll in India in the last two decades due to heat stress, floods and landslides and malnutrition among children is ~16,500 per annum, and ~300,000 fresh cases of malaria and dengue per year. The paper estimates that the projected figures for the next 3 decades may rise 10-fold per annum for heat stress, floods and landslides, and child malnutrition. Morbidity would also increase due to malaria, dengue, chikungunya, water stress and drought, food insecurity and nutritional deficiency (Climate change will collapse the healthcare delivery system in India).

South Asian People’s Action on Climate Crisis (SAPACC)

The South Asian People’s Action on the Climate Crisis (SAPACC) is a platform of workers, farmers, youth, gender equality, women, and environmental organisations who are interested in working together on issues related to sustainability and equity. SAPACC was set up in 2019 by people from Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Submissions to SAPACC Dialogues

Those interested in responding to this post or making a fresh submission on a topic related to sustainability and equity may send it to [email protected]. Views expressed in the submissions to SAPACC Dialogues may not necessarily agree with SAPACC’s core beliefs.

While we have not yet decided on the maximum length of the submissions, they may be 500 words upwards. For the time being, we can handle submissions in English.

SAPACC’s core beliefs

• Sustainability: Developed nations must pledge to become net carbon negative in consumption emissions by 2035-40 to create space for developing nations to fully decarbonise by 2045-50.

Note: Decarbonisation must focus primarily on: a) Mitigation, focused on the reduction of consumption levels in the Global North, and supply-side management, leaving >90% of the remaining fossil fuel reserves in the ground;  b)  Sequestration, focused on Nature-based Solutions that centre climate and social justice. In addition, decarbonisation strategies must eschew failed, untested, hypothetical market-based solutions and techno-fixes. Through these means, gross global consumption should be reduced to sustainable levels, the measure for which should be a quantifiable justice-centric sustainability index.

• Environmental justice: a) Responsibility for loss & damage: Nations/regions should take responsibility for climate change impacts attributable to them—displacement, property loss, etc—in proportion to their cumulative emissions (emissions from 1750-to date); b) Sharing benefits and risks equitably: Engineering and administrative controls should be put into place (e.g., global warming mitigative and adaptive measures, facilitating population migration where risk becomes high) such that all people of the world face roughly the same degree of risk from the impacts of GHG emissions; and the wealth created by the use of fossil fuels are distributed equally to all people of the world.

• Equity: The ratio of the maximum income consumption for all people in the world should be~5

• Decentralisation, democratic, transparent governance: Governance should be decentralised and democratic; all governance information should be in the public domain.

• Environmental remediation: Degraded land, water, air, and, to the extent possible, biodiversity should be remedied.

• Natural resource sharing: To engender global peace, people should share natural resources cooperatively and equitably as usufruct rights (and not ownership rights).

Sagar Dhara Member of the most ferocious predator that stalked Earth—humans; Male; Upper caste & class; College educated; City slicker. Email: [email protected]

Read Part – I