Climate Change, Peace Operations and the Protection of Civilians: The impact of climate change on peace operations' ability to fulfil Protection of Civilians tasks - PoC Week Side Event to UN Security Council Open Debate on PoC

In-person, Invite only

Background

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a factor that exacerbates conflict dynamics and impacts the protection of civilians (POC). While climate change does not directly predict the occurrence or nature of violence, it contributes to various ‘pathways’ that can increase the likelihood of conflict. These include forced displacement, local resource competition, economic uncertainty, food insecurity and community relocation.

Extreme weather events — such as severe flooding and prolonged droughts — are amplifying conflict risks between communities and exacerbating vulnerabilities. These events increase population displacement, disrupt traditional migration patterns, and intensify competition for dwindling resources and arable land. These impacts cannot be underestimated. As climate-related hazards increase in frequency and severity, threats to civilians from conflicts associated with those risks, also grow, while forced displacement can spread conflict into new areas. Such climate-induced challenges not only elevate risks of violence against civilians but also significantly impede the response capabilities of peacekeeping missions, often restricting access to communities in urgent need of protection and humanitarian assistance.

The complex relationship between climate change and conflict has several critical implications for the protection of civilians, including increased civilian exposure to conflict effects in previously stable areas, evolving nature of vulnerabilities and threats faced by civilians due to climate impacts, heightened stress on community adaptation mechanisms and protective capacities, and challenges for state security forces and peacekeepers in addressing rapidly evolving protection needs. Additionally, there’s potential for climate-induced resource scarcity to fuel inter-communal tensions and violence, while the increased complexity in implementing protection strategies due to unpredictable environmental conditions further Permanent Mission of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations complicates peacekeeping efforts. The intersection of climate change and conflict necessitates a reevaluation of traditional peacekeeping approaches, calling for more adaptive, climate-sensitive protection strategies that can anticipate and respond to the dynamic challenges posed by environmental degradation and its cascading effects on human security.

Many countries experiencing armed conflict are also among those most vulnerable to climate and environmental risks. Of the five UN peacekeeping missions with a mandate to protect civilians, four of these mandates also recognize that climate and environmental risks are having adverse effects on stability: MINUSCA, MONUSCO, UNISFA and UNMISS. These missions represent 75 per cent of UN peacekeeping personnel, uniformed and civilians. This underscores the importance of assessing and addressing climate challenges and the intertwined nature of climate, peace and security in these highly vulnerable regions, and the necessity to consider these risks in mandate implementation. How are climate risks and related natural hazards impacting the ability of UN peacekeeping operations to effectively implement one of its core tasks: the protection of civilians? What can be learned from adaptation efforts by local, national and regional actors to both protect civilians and anticipate climate-related risks? The event aims to improve understanding of the intersection between protection of civilians and escalating climate and environmental risks.

In South Sudan, as detailed in the independent assessment of UNMISS’ Protection of Civilians mandate implementation; climate change and environmental factors have added to the suffering and insecurity of a significant number of civilians. Climate-induced crises have intensified intercommunal violence among herding and farming communities, dislocated entire communities and considerably increased the population of some of the internally displaced persons camps. The Bentiu internally displaced persons camp in Unity State, has turned into an island, surrounded by flood waters, protected only by dykes maintained by UNMISS in coordination with humanitarian actors and the Government. Many residents who fled their homes due to flooding have little prospect of returning to their places of origin, even if their other security concerns were alleviated. Extended drought has destroyed cattle grazing land in other areas. The increased intensity and unpredictability of natural hazards in South Sudan, including severe flooding and drought, has not only affected civilian vulnerabilities to violence, it has had a clear impact on the Mission’s capacities to address them.

The Central African Republic has been affected by shifting transhumance patterns impacted by drought and land degradation and compounded by the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and the Great Lakes region. Pastoralists have altered migratory routes, pushing them earlier and further into CAR in search of pastureland and water resources, which has increased community tensions and conflicts. MINUSCA has supported the government in hosting the first national transhumance conference in 2024 and has played a role in facilitating and supporting the implementation of local and cross-border agreements between farmers and herders.

In Abyei, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are intensifying competition between farming and pastoralist communities, disrupting agricultural production, shifting migration patterns and worsening humanitarian impacts. Extreme weather conditions complicate resupply of equipment, negatively impact the mobility and access of UNISFA, and, in some cases, complicate its ability to protect civilians. The latest UNISFA Resolution from 14 November 2024 commends the activities of the peacekeepers to assist flood-affected communities in these challenging conditions.

UNMISS, UNISFA and MINUSCA can also draw upon region-wide early warning systems supported by IGAD. Statements of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council also have highlighted the importance of addressing the intersection of climate and peace and security on the continent. Within peacekeeping operations, a whole-of-mission and whole-of-UN approach is essential. Climate, Peace and Security Advisors and POC Advisors are working to anticipate and assess CPS and POC risks respectively. Concepts of operations, training and posture should be adapted to anticipate and respond to evolving CPS and POC requirements as well as shouldering heavy burdens to maintain dykes and access roads vital both to mission freedom of movement, the protection of civilians and humanitarian access.

Taking UNMISS as an example, the UN Police Division is also engaged via work on cattle raiding and related violence exacerbated by climate and environmental pressures. The Mission also works closely with national authorities both to support them in assuming and fulfilling their primary responsibility to protect civilians and to anticipate and respond to these flooding and droughts. Additionally, engineers from Troop Contributing Countries, have worked to maintain key supply routes, roads, dykes, and an airport landing strip. This ongoing maintenance has allowed the mission to respond to POC risks and for humanitarian organizations to continue protecting and supporting the people of Bentiu despite the challenges posed by the flooding.

In all settings, including within UNMISS, UNISFA and MINUSCA, cooperation between the mission and UN Country Teams is critical to couple local mediation and community dialogue efforts with tangible interventions by UN agencies, funds and programmes to support adaptation. Fortunately, several examples of good practice are emerging in these contexts.

When climate-related peace and security risks are integrated into the assessment and planning of peace operations, they are in a better position to anticipate and analyse potential protection of civilian risks and plan for protection activities. When this happens, peace operations (and its partners) are in a better position to understand and respond to climate-related security risks in the communities they operate in. As a result, the Mission can be better equipped to respond to mandated priorities in environments where extreme weather and climate hazards are present. Emerging practice and research offer guidance in how peace operations ecosystem can better anticipate and prepare for implementing their Protection of Civilian mandates, maintaining operational readiness and community engagement, while also evolving at the pace of multiplying risks. Failure to do so can result in preventable civilian harm, jeopardize mission effectiveness, drive unintended consequences that reinforce vulnerabilities, and deepen conflict dynamics.

During a facilitated roundtable discussion on these topics, we will first set the scene with a few insights from research conducted in CAR, Abyei and South Sudan. This will be followed by an interactive panel discussion about operational experiences in UNMISS, UNISFA and MINUSCA. Finally, all participants can engage in a roundtable discussion about identifying actions that all stakeholders can take to enhance preparation and adapt to the changes in the environmental conditions within which peace operations will increasingly operate in future.

This event is hosted by the Permanent Mission of Denmark, and co-sponsored by the Permanent Missions of Australia, the Republic of Korea and Switzerland with the participation and support of the UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO), NUPI, SIPRI, CIVIC.

Guiding Questions:

• How are climate and environmental pressures affecting POC-related risks faced by communities and vulnerable populations?

• How are missions supporting national authorities to both protect civilians and anticipate climate-related risks?

• How can peacekeeping missions better support community-based protection mechanisms in the face of climate-related challenges?

• What can be learned from adaptive efforts of troop- and police-contributing countries from UNMISS and UNISFA experiences? How can these adaptations be better supported and fostered?

• What role are regional organizations playing in addressing region-wide risks and opportunities?

• How can the UN Secretariat adapt its policies and tools to better prepare and enable its mission to operate under challenging environmental conditions?

• What actions can Troop Contributing Countries do to better prepare and equip their peacekeepers for operation in extreme weather conditions?

Date and location

The event will take place on 20 May from 10:30 am to 12.00 pm (noon), at the Permanent Mission of Denmark to the United Nations, 666 Third Avenue, 8th floor, New York.

Please click [HERE] to register to participate in the event.

Agenda:

Opening Remarks:

• Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark to the UN in New York Setting the scene: Insights from recent research

Research panel discussion:

• Dr. Lotte Vermeij, NORCAP

• Dr. Andrew E Yaw Tchie, NUPI, TfP and EPON

• Wendy MacClinchy, Director, CIVIC UN peace operation practice: Perspectives from operational experience Operational panel discussion:

• Lt. Gen. Mohan Subramanian, Force Commander UNMISS (virtual)

• Maj. Gen. Robert Yaw Affram, Acting Head of Mission and Force Commander UNISFA (virtual)

• Dr. Johnson Nkem, Senior Climate Security Advisor, UNMISS (virtual)

• Mr. Koffi Wogomebou, Senior Protection of Civilians Adviser and Head of the POC Unit, MINUSCA

• Dr. Linda Ogallo, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) (virtual)

Event moderated by: Dr. Cedric H. de Coning, Research Professor at NUPI