Climate Change Made India's April Heatwaves '30 times More Likely': Study | Weather.com - The Weather Channel

Climate Change Made India's April Heatwaves '30 times More Likely': Study | Weather.com

Human-induced climate change made April's record-breaking humid heatwave in India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand at least 30 times more likely, revealed a rapid attribution analysis by an international team of climate scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution group.

Furthermore, the study also added that high vulnerability in this region, one of the world's heatwave hotpots, amplified the impacts.

In April, parts of South and Southeast Asia experienced a fierce heatwave, with record-shattering temperatures that crossed 42°C in Laos and 45°C in Thailand.

While harsh heat caused widespread hospitalisations, damaged roads, sparked fires and led to school closures over the region, the number of deaths remains unknown.

Across the world, climate change has made heatwaves more frequent, longer, and hotter.

To quantify the effect of climate change on the Asian heatwave, scientists analysed weather data and computer model simulations to compare today's climate (after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s) with past climate, following peer-reviewed methods.

They looked at the average maximum temperature and maximum values of a heat index for four consecutive days in April across two regions, one covering South and East India and Bangladesh and a second including Thailand and Laos.

The heat index is a measure that combines temperature and humidity to reflect heatwaves' impacts on the human body more accurately.

In both regions, climate change made the humid heatwave at least 30 times more likely, with temperatures at least 2°C hotter than they would have been without climate change. Until greenhouse gas emissions are halted, global temperatures will continue to increase, and events like this will become more frequent and severe.

In India and Bangladesh, events like the recent humid heatwave used to occur less than once a century on average; they can now be expected around once in five years, and if the temperature rise reaches 2°C degrees — as will happen within approximately 30 years if emissions are not cut rapidly — events like this will occur, on average, at least once every two years.

In Laos and Thailand, scientists found that an event like the recent record humid heatwave would have been nearly impossible without the influence of climate change, and it is still a very unusual event that can only be expected around once in 200 years, even with the effect of human-caused climate change.

But if the temperature rise reaches 2°C, it will become much more common, occurring about once in 20 years.

While high temperatures are the norm in South and Southeast Asia, early heatwaves such as this are particularly damaging. People most exposed to the Sun and vulnerable populations are routinely the worst impacted.

The scientists emphasised that the current patchwork of heatwave solutions needs improvement to account for inequalities and existing vulnerabilities. More comprehensive and inclusive heat action plans are required to ensure access to essential services like water, electricity and healthcare.

Twenty-two researchers participated in the study as part of the World Weather Attribution initiative, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in India, Thailand, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Kenya, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US.

Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati of the Indian Institute of Technology, Tirupati, said: "Although we have recognised heatwaves as one of the deadliest disasters, particularly in countries like India, Bangladesh, and Thailand, there is a lack of knowledge with respect to who is vulnerable, loss and damage estimation, household coping mechanisms, and the most effective heat action plans."

"Except for the human casualties, other economic and non-economic loss and damage indicators are not documented. This creates a dearth in assessing the extent of risk, who is vulnerable, and also operationalising any adaptation planning."

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The above article has been published from a wire source with minimal modifications to the headline and text.