Climate change leaves no room for error | My View ... - Santa Fe New Mexican

Climate change leaves no room for error | My View | santafenewmexican.com

In April 2022, the Forest Service ignited a prescribed fire by Hermits Peak near Las Vegas, N.M. This fire merged with a fire emerging from burned brush piles that had smoldered since January. Together, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire grew to 341,000 acres, the largest fire in New Mexico history.

The various points of view on the value (or threat) of thinning and prescribed fire have reacted in expected ways to this tragic event. Opponents have seen the fire as a vindication of their arguments. Not surprisingly, advocates of the program have ramped up their defensive claims.

At this point, however, the horse is out of the barn. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 directed $3 billion toward reducing wildfire risk over the next five years. The related Forest Service Wildfire Crisis Strategy is driving the agency toward treating 20 million acres over the next 10 years.
Burn bosses, fire staff and administrators need better decision support with respect to the latest fire science regarding weather, fuels, drought, smoke and fire behavior. Attrition of administrators and burn bosses leads to loss of institutional knowledge and experience. The Forest Service needs a system for transferring institutional knowledge and experience, especially with respect to complexity analysis and the burn plan review process. Human factors contribute significantly to escapes. However, the current system has no mechanism for acknowledging uncertainty in the complex environment of planned fire.

Henry H. Carey is a professional forester and has been director of the Forest Trust since 1984.