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Climate change increasing storm risks to coastal communities: study - The Hill

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Climate change increasing storm risks to coastal communities: study | The Hill

Climate change increasing storm risks to coastal communities: study

Climate change is both making hurricanes more dangerous and, over time, increasing the chances of them hitting the same site twice, according to research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Researchers from Princeton’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering analyzed Atlantic tropical cyclones dating back to the mid-20th century to project toward the end of the 21st. Their analysis of nine East Coast locations found that, from 1949 to 2018, tropical cyclone hazards increased everywhere but Charleston, S.C., and Pensacola, Fla. The duration of those hazards also increased everywhere except Charleston.

The analysis also found that, in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions remain high, the odds of two tropical cyclones hitting the same area over 15 days may become more likely by the end of the century. Again with the exception of Pensacola and Charleston, “there is a clear increasing trend in the yearly probability of sequential [tropical cyclone] hazards,” the study’s authors wrote. “For example, the probability doubled over the past seven decades at Sandy Hook, New Jersey.”

In addition to Charleston, Sandy Hook and Pensacola, the researchers analyzed data from Galveston Pier 21, Texas; Tampa Bay, Fla.; Fernandina Beach, Fla.; Fort Pulaski, Ga.; Wilmington, N.C.; and Sewells Point, Va.

Consecutive storms hitting the same area can significantly add to damage and disrupt efforts to rebuild, as demonstrated during 2017, when three consecutive storms struck Puerto Rico, Texas and Florida. This has been a historically rare occurrence, but the odds increased over the 20th century.

While the data is unclear on climate change’s effect on the total number of hurricanes in general, the scientific literature indicates it has made such storms wetter and more intense, with similar impacts on weaker tropical storms. There is also evidence it slows storms down, allowing them to spread out their impacts over a broader area.

Climate change increasing storm risks to coastal communities: study - The Hill

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