Climate change is impacting NC’s display of dazzling fall leaves. Here’s how.

Warmer temperatures and prolonged periods of drier weather tied to a changing climate means N.C. could start seeing a shorter, less vibrant fall foliage season

• The window for viewing fall colors is potentially shrinking and the vibrancy of the leaves may be dulling over time.
• North Carolina’s diverse elevation gives it one of the longest fall color seasons in the country.

Watching the leaves change in Western North Carolina and then slowly following the migration of the collage of colors toward the coast is a time-honored tradition in the Tar Heel State.

But climate change and the impacts it’s having on the environment, especially warming temperatures and longer periods of dry weather, are reshaping the state’s fall colors.

The window to see the rich tapestry of brilliant leaves is potentially shrinking, and the natural show put on annually by Mother Nature might be getting a bit duller.

While some years might see a normal display of dazzling fall foliage, the long-term trend appears set.

“Going forward, we will still have the opportunity to see those vibrant colors,” said Dr. Robert Bardon, associate dean of extension and professor of forestry at N.C. State University, who has been observing the state’s fall foliage for more than 30 years. “But things will vary from year to year, and with a longer growing season tied to our warming temperatures pretty much inevitable, that green leaf color might hang on a bit longer.”

More: What will fall be like in Wilmington? Here’s what the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts

Why N.C.’s fall foliage is so stunning

Thanks to North Carolina’s huge elevation differential from Mount Mitchell, at nearly 6,700 feet the highest U.S. elevation east of the Mississippi, to the beaches at sea level on the coast, the Tar Heel State has one of the longest fall color seasons in the country.

“The nice thing about North Carolina is we have a very diverse landscape,” Bardon said. “So often times when one area might have muted colors, it may be different in another part of the state that has very vibrant colors.”

What plays a role in leaves changing color

Leaves change color when trees begin to prepare for winter by slowing down the production of chlorophyll, which creates a green pigment and dominates the other pigments trees produce naturally. As the days get shorter and the nights get longer, trees slow down the production of chlorophyll, allowing the other pigments − yellow, orange, red and purple − to become dominant.

Several factors play a role in where and when leaves start to prepare to shed their leaves, and they can be easily impacted by weather patterns that they themselves can be influenced by climate change. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), factors such as temperature, sunlight, precipitation and soil moisture influence fall color arrival, duration and vibrancy.

In North Carolina, Bardon said our more extreme weather patterns in recent years, including prolonged droughts that stress trees and powerful, intense storms, have been changing how and when leaves transform.

“That’s why we’re seeing lots of changes, because the dry weather we’ve been seeing in recent years means less sugar (chlorophyll) is produced and trapped in the leaves, meaning less vibrant colors, and the leaves fall off earlier,” he said. “And when storms like Helene roll through, we just don’t have any foliage at all.

“So while the hours of daylight, which also has a big influence on trees, isn’t changing, our weather is.”

According to the U.S. drought monitor, as of Tuesday, Oct. 21 nearly 92% of North Carolina was either “abnormally dry” or in some stage of drought − including parts of New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties.

This represents the fifth straight year that North Carolina has entered autumn suffering from a sustained period of dry weather, according to the N.C. State Climate Office.

Temperatures also are rising and staying warmer later into the year. Five of North Carolina’s top six warmest years have happened since 2016, and each year in the past decade ranks among the top 22 warmest on record dating back to 1895, according to the climate office.

More: Will the Wilmington area see snow this year? Here’s the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction

How fall foliage is big business for N.C.

For Western North Carolina, the changing of the leaves is big business and is the highlight of the region’s tourism season.

According to Visit North Carolina, the state’s official toursim bureau, pre-Helene fall tourist traffic in the N.C. mountains brought in about $1.8 billion in visitor dollars annually. While that figure is obviously lower today after the tropical storm shredded the region in 2024 and recovery efforts are still very much underway, tourists have returned as attractions, like the Blue Ridge Parkway, largely reopen.

So have the fall colors, although the damage from Helene was so great it has been subdued in certain areas, Bardon said.

Still, the beautiful leafy tapestry is out there for those who want to enjoy the sights.

“And it’s not too late,” Bardon said on Thursday, Oct. 23, “but you can’t wait too much longer. It’s probably around the peak right now.”

For those who don’t want to make the trek up Interstate 40 from Wilmington, Bardon said there’s still a chance to see Mother Nature’s natural beauty show − although maybe not as vibrantly as you would in the mountains.

“We’re just starting to see the trees change here in the Triangle, and colors will start coming in down there at the coast in early November,” he said.

And Bardon said while fall colors will continue to dazzle and amaze visitors in the coming years, increased weather-related stresses could leave trees less vibrant and more vulnerable to losing their leaves before peak season arrives.

“People are observant, and over time they might notice that things aren’t the same same like it was in the 70s and 80s,” he said. “It’s a bit like snowfall, when people said we used to have it more years ago.

‘We’re still going to have a vibrant fall foliage season in the future, but potentially a longer growing season and more dry periods could see some impacts on when, where and how long we see those fall colors.”

Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMcGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from the Green South Foundation, the Prentice Foundation and the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.