Climate change is ‘elephant in the room,’ says expert on provincial election

The 2025 provincial election is happening in the direct aftermath of one of the worst climate-related disasters in Newfoundland and Labrador’s recent history.

But the wildfires that devastated communities across the province over the summer, and the drought that has farmers worried about being able to feed their livestock this winter, hasn’t pushed climate change to the top of the political agenda during the campaign race.

In fact, while speaking with reporters on Thursday, PC Leader Tony Wakeham said he doesn’t believe there’s a connection between the oil industry and the wildfires that ravaged towns.

“I don’t think the two are related. I don’t believe the two are related,” he said. 

“We need to be prepared for those changes that are coming, yes, but simply walking away from oil production off our coast, I don’t think that’s going to have an impact on that particular situation.”

Climate scientists have told CBC News that the hot, dry weather that allowed the forest fires to rapidly spread is a direct result of fossil fuel-induced climate change. 

Wakeham, Liberal Leader John Hogan and NDP Leader Jim Dinn have all promised to help communities feeling the effects of climate change, and bolster infrastructure and staffing to better fight forest fires.

But throughout the campaign, both Wakeham and Hogan have pledged support for the oil industry.

On Monday, Hogan promised a re-elected Liberal government would create a new office to help speed up the development of major projects — including those in the offshore industry.

“Unfortunately we’ve come to this place in our history where oil is a very important commodity,” he said.

“People use it in their everyday lives. Everybody here uses it every day. We need to start using it less.”

Both Wakeham and Hogan are promising to lobby the federal government to get rid of its emissions cap.

‘They’re all climate issues’

Angela Carter, a political science professor at Memorial University, said climate change is “the elephant in the room” of the 2025 election.

“All of the headline issues — social, political, economic — that we need to be dealing with, they’re all climate issues,” she said.

Carter said those issues include climate change-related disasters, a rising cost of living tied to higher oil prices and industries like the fishery and agriculture at risk due to higher temperatures. 

“If we want to have any chance at slowing down the climate crisis, we have to stop new exploration and we have to phase down existing production as well as the use of fossil fuels,” she said.

Much of the provincial government’s revenue comes from oil royalties — a fact that Wakeham and Hogan both have pointed to when asked about their support for the industry. The industry has also been a major employer in Newfoundland and Labrador for decades.

But organizations like the International Energy Agency expect demand for oil to peak and then decline in the next few years, and Carter said that means further government support for the industry comes with economic risk.

“This is an irreversible decline, and that’s because global energy systems are changing,” Carter said.

“We are in the midst of a global energy transition because it’s cheaper now to fuel transportation and heating with renewable non-fossil fuel sources.”

Liberal and PC politicians have argued that the province’s offshore oil extraction process is greener than in other parts of the world — justifying further exploration and production.

Joel Finnis, a Memorial University climatologist, said that process does produce less emissions, but the majority of emissions from a barrel of oil come when it’s burned for energy.

“That advantage is tiny, negligible, something we could easily ignore. It’s not the core of the problem,” he said.

According to the Canadian Climate Institute, the oil and gas sector is projected to account for 31 per cent of Canada’s fossil fuel emissions — and the federal government’s 2030 climate target is now out of reach.

Finnis said other parts of the world, like China, are more proactive about transitioning to renewable energy sources, and he’s concerned that Canada could get left behind.

“I worry less and less about Canadian production and its impact on climate and more and more about Canadians’ commitment to oil production as something that’s going to leave us economically shackled to the past in a way that’s going to be long-term, permanently harmful,” he said.

Both Hogan and Wakeham have promised support for wind and hydro energy, though their disagreement over the Churchill Falls MOU remains among the most pivotal point of division of the campaign.

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