Climate Change is Driving a Surge in Child Marriage

Behind the visible destruction from climate change—floods, wildfires, and droughts—lies another less obvious but devastating impact: rising rates of child marriage. As climate change fuels economic insecurity, displacement, and conflict in countries already burdened by inequality, these stressors drive higher rates of violence against women and girls, including child marriage.

This social evil is driven by gender inequality, poverty, and unequal access to education and healthcare—all of which are worsened by climate change.

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals aim to end child marriage by 2030, but the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters threatens to make this goal nearly impossible. Four of the five countries with the highest rates of child marriage—Niger, Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and Mali—are also among the top ten most climate-vulnerable countries.

In Niger, 76% of girls marry before their 18th birthday [pdf]. Families struggling with poverty and food insecurity often view marriage of their daughters as the only answer, as it reduces financial burdens and can provide a bride price. And across the planet, twelve million girls under the age of 18 are married each year. 

The Danger Of a Stalled Education 

Climate change is also disrupting education, a critical factor in preventing child marriage. Extreme weather events can force families out of their homes, making education inaccessible, the financial instability preventing them from affording school fees. Gender norms make matters worse—when education must be limited, boys are favoured and girls are often the first to be denied access.

An estimated 60% of child brides have received no formal education. Girls with only primary education are twice as likely [pdf] to marry young compared to those with secondary or higher education. It was estimated in 2021 that climate events would prevent four million girls in low and lower-middle income countries from completing their education. By 2025, that number could reach 12.5 million. In 2024 alone, 242 million children across 85 countries had their education disrupted by extreme weather. 

Displaced Girls Suffer Disproportionately

Amid the growing risks to girls, the link between climate and child marriage is especially evident in regions hit by extreme drought. In the Horn of Africa, girls as young as twelve were forced into marriage, sometimes to men five times their age, as drought devastated families in 2022. In Ethiopia, affected regions saw child marriage rates rise by more than 119%. The risk of girls losing access [pdf] to education in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia tripled.

The threat extends beyond economic pressures. Researchers have found that sexual violence spikes during and after extreme weather events, leading to higher rates of child marriage. After floods and cyclones in Bangladesh for example, families often shelter in public buildings where girls face heightened risks of assault [pdf]. In Somalia, the Dabaab Refugee Complex originally built for refugees fleeing the 1991 civil war saw its population increase more than threefold between 2022 and 2033, amid drought and conflict.

When families are forced into refugee camps, women and girls face the constant threat of rape, whether they’re walking back from using a toilet at night or having to collect firewood or water outside of the camp.

“It is trouble and suffering,” Wiilo Ibrahim, an unregistered refugee, told the Environmental Justice Foundation at Dabaab. “At night, you have to be on alert.” 

Sexual assault carries such a stigma in some communities that families believe marriage is the best “protection”, even though child marriage is itself a form of violence.

A Mental and Physical Toll

Girls who marry before 15 are nearly 50% more likely to experience intimate partner violence than those who marry after 18. Child brides also face lethal health risks. Girls who give birth before 15 are five times more likely to die in childbirth compared to women in their 20s. Complications during pregnancy and childbirth are the leading cause of death for girls aged 15-19 in developing countries. Additionally, 65% of obstetric fistula cases occur in girls under 18, and babies born to young mothers are 60% more likely to die in their first year. Psychological issues, including isolation, depression, and anxiety, are also common for child brides.

Despite the alarming statistics, there is limited research on the specific impact of climate change on child marriage, which means international organizations and governments often fail to make the link. The World Bank’s climate and development report for CAR for example, examines [pdf] how climate change damages education infrastructure and worsens socio-economic pressures, pushing children out of school, but it does not mention impacts on child marriage rates. This is problematic, given that CAR has the world’s third highest rate of child marriage.

Empowering Girls Helps Build Resilience

Some countries are making progress. Bangladesh has formally recognized [pdf] the link in its National Adaptation Plan and mapped steps to end both child marriage and domestic violence triggered by climate disasters. Other countries however, like Iraq, are moving in the opposite direction. Recent amendments to the country’s Personal Status Law, which had set a minimum age of 18 for marriage, now allow religious clerics to apply their own interpretations of Islamic law, which can include the marriage of children, including children as young as nine. Ending child marriage is complex, and climate change has made the issue even more challenging. Legislation setting a minimum marriage age is a crucial piece of the puzzle, but it has to be enforced strictly and be free from loopholes. The root causes of child marriage, including poverty, and deep-rooted gender norms, must be addressed. And as former UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said, “education for girls is one of the best strategies for protecting girls against child marriage.” Research backs this assertion: for every additional year of schooling a girl receives, her chances of child marriage decrease, and her country’s resilience to climate change improves, according to the World Bank. Girls must have equal access to quality, gender-responsive education that includes climate change in the curriculum. With education comes empowerment, enabling girls to become future community and climate leaders, who will challenge the norms and policies that marginalize them.