Climate change disrupts age-old migration patterns among Kashmiri Bakarwals

A cluster of around 30 makeshift tents lines the banks of a tributary of Rambi Ara nullah in south Kashmir’s Pulwama district, about 40 kilometre from Srinagar. Abdul, along with his wife, five sons and three daughters, lives in this cluster. This is the fifth consecutive year that these nomadic Bakarwal families have camped here. They originally hail from Nowshera in Rajouri.

For centuries, the rhythm of their lives was dictated by snowfall. That rhythm is now being disrupted.

With snowfall declining and migration routes growing more treacherous, these families have chosen to stay in Kashmir, abandoning a tradition that has defined their identity for generations.

Vanishing snow disrupts traditional migration cycles

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2021) states that Himalayan regions such as Kashmir are warming at roughly twice the global average rate. Kashmir’s average temperature has increased by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius  (°C) over the past century, compared with a global mean rise of around 0.7°C over the same period.

The snowfall that once anchored the Bakarwals’ migration calendar is diminishing. A 2025 peer-reviewed study examining five decades of data found significant declines in snow water equivalent and snow cover across Jammu and Kashmir. Snowfall across the north-western Himalayas decreased by 25 per cent in the five years preceding 2025 compared with the 40-year average.

The primary driver is the weakening of western disturbances — low-pressure weather systems originating over the Mediterranean that bring Kashmir its winter precipitation. Most western disturbances in recent winters have either been weak or have passed north of Jammu and Kashmir, according to Mukhtar Ahmad, director of the Meteorological Department in Srinagar.

Over the past 10 to 15 years, climate change has significantly altered precipitation patterns in the region, Professor Muhammad Sultan Bhat of the Department of Geography and Disaster Management at the University of Kashmir, told this reporter.

“Kashmir, part of the north-western Himalayas, receives 60-70 per cent of its precipitation from western disturbances and 30-35 per cent from the monsoon,” he said. “But rising temperatures are reducing the moisture these systems carry and shifting precipitation from snow to rain.”

“This change is critical because snow acts as natural storage. With less snowfall, snow reserves are depleting, affecting the hydrological system. It begins with meteorological drought, leading to reduced stream flow, then agricultural stress, and eventually socio-economic impacts,” he explained.

Snow persistence across the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region reached its lowest level in 23 years during the winter of 2024-25, with snow cover below the long-term average for four of the past five winters, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development’s (ICIMOD) 2025 Snow Update Report.