Climate change ‘could lead to 45C summers in Britain’

Climate change could lead to 45C summers in the UK, the Met Office has said.

A study by the forecaster found there was now a 50-50 chance that the country sees 40C again in the next 12 years.

The Met Office analysed a model of the summer of 2022 – which saw temperatures in the UK surpass 40C for the first time – and global climate trends.

Data show that there is a 4.2 per cent chance that the mercury climbs above 40C at least once in any given summer.

The likelihood of this extreme temperature occurring is now six times greater than it was in the 1980s, and three times more likely than in 2000.

Dr Gillian Kay, a senior scientist at the Met Office and the study’s lead author, said: “The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.

“Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.”

Under current projections, the model also predicts a 1 per cent chance per year of temperatures reaching 42C.

The maximum temperature that could conceivably be reached, according to the analysis, is 46.6C, and month-long heatwaves are also a possibility.

“Far higher temperatures – over 45C – and more sustained heatwaves may be possible today,” the scientists wrote.