Climate change could halve pasture areas by 2100, according to study

According to a forecast, pastureland could shrink significantly in the future if global temperatures rise as a result of climate change. Africa would be particularly affected.

Depending on the scenario, around 36 to 50 percent of today’s climatically suitable grazing land would lose its usability by 2100, according to a study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). This would affect 110 to 140 million people who live from pasture farming, as well as up to 1.6 billion grazing animals such as cattle, sheep and goats.

“Grazing is strongly dependent on environmental factors such as temperature, humidity and water availability,” says co-author Maximilian Kotz. “Our results show that climate change is significantly limiting the areas in which this form of agriculture can function and making agricultural practices that have developed over centuries more difficult.” The changes are particularly noticeable in countries “where people are already suffering from hunger, economic and political instability and high gender inequality”, adds first author Chaohui Li.

According to the study, Africa is particularly affected: depending on the climate scenario, suitable grassland areas there could shrink by 16 percent or even up to 65 percent if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. According to the report, temperatures in many regions of the continent are already at the upper end of what is still climatically acceptable for pasture farming.

Already food shortages due to drought in East Africa

For the cattle herds of the Maasai and Samburu in Kenya, for example, or the sheep and goat herds of nomadic cattle breeders in the Horn of Africa, which are already exposed to difficult conditions, this is a bleak future scenario. While severe droughts used to occur in the region every 20 years or so, in the recent past they have become more frequent.

Even now, climate and agricultural experts are worried about the upcoming rainy season, which could bring too little water for farmers and livestock breeders. Somalia had already declared a drought emergency last November. The Africa office of the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that around two million people in Kenya alone are suffering from food insecurity following poor crop yields due to the short and relatively dry last rainy season.