Climate and Health Outlook - HHS.gov

Climate and Health Outlook | HHS.gov

Welcome to the eighteenth edition of the Climate and Health Outlook from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Climate Change and Health Equity (OCCHE). The Climate and Health Outlook is an effort to inform health professionals and the public on how our health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. This webpage includes additional resources and information excluded from the PDF summary, including regional prospective forecasts.

Download the Climate and Health Outlook for February 2024

OCCHE and the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) launched the Climate and Health Outlook Portal to accompany this Climate and Health Outlook publication series. This new tool features interactive maps with county-level heat, wildfire, and drought forecasts for the current month along with county-level data on individual risk factors that may make people more vulnerable to negative health outcomes from these climate hazards. Policymakers, health care providers, and the public can use the tool to better understand and plan for the health impacts of climate-related hazards in their communities. OCCHE plans to update the tool with new features including additional climate-related hazard and risk factor data and welcomes user feedback on how it can be improved—please email us at OCCHE@hhs.gov to let us know what you think.

Visit the Climate and Health Outlook Portal for County-Level Data

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Image source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/regions_nca4

U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: February 2024

Regional forecasts for winter weather, hurricane, wildfire, and drought

Alaska: Most of Alaska has a modest chance of above-normal temperatures for February. Above-normal precipitation is most likely over parts of southern Alaska, including Anchorage.

Northwest: Most of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington have modest to high probabilities of above-normal temperatures for February. Drought is favored to persist across small portions of Washington, central Oregon, and northern Idaho with improvement and removal in western Oregon.

Southwest: Much of the Southwest including central and southern California has elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation for February, associated with atmospheric river impacts early in the month. Multiple periods of heavy mountain snow are likely. Near-normal temperature probabilities are slightly elevated for parts of southern California and the Desert Southwest. Drought is favored to persist across most of New Mexico with improvement across Arizona, western New Mexico into parts of Colorado, southern Nevada, and eastern Utah.

Hawai’i and Pacific Islands: An elevated chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation is forecast for February. Drought persistence and development is forecasted across most of Hawai’i.

Caribbean: Drought persistence and development is forecasted across most of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in February. Above normal significant wildfire* potential is forecast for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Northern Great Plains: Above-normal temperatures are very likely for much of Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. Above-normal precipitation is most likely over western Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Drought persistence is favored in western Montana, northwestern Wyoming, northern North Dakota, a small portion of southeastern South Dakota, and eastern Nebraska. Drought removal is favored in a small portion of southern Wyoming.

Southern Great Plains: Above-normal temperature probabilities increase northward from northern Texas to Kansas. Modest probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast for much of the region during February. Drought improvement and removal is forecasted for parts of southern Oklahoma, southern and eastern Texas, and most of Kansas. Drought persistence is forecasted in western Texas.

Midwest: Above-normal temperatures are highly likely for Minnesota, Wisconsin, while remaining likely over the rest of the region. Modest probabilities of below-normal precipitation are forecast over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Drought is favored to persist across most of Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Michigan, along with a small portion of western Illinois and western Michigan. Drought improvement and removal is favored in southern Missouri, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana.

Southeast: Near-normal temperatures are more likely during February for parts of the Southeast Coast including Florida, while above-normal precipitation is favored over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Widespread drought improvement is forecast over impacted areas. Drought improvement and removal is favored across drought areas of Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Arkansas, and northwestern Georgia.

Northeast: Above-normal temperature probabilities are slightly elevated for the interior Northeast. A slight tilt toward below-normal precipitation is depicted for most of the region. Most of the Northeast is forecasted to remain drought-free, except for a small portion western New York plus Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts where drought is forecasted to persist.

*Smoke from wildfires can impact health hundreds of miles from site of the fire.

Winter weather forecasts are drawn from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Winter Outlook, drought forecasts from NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, wildfire forecasts from the National Interagency Coordination Center, and hurricane forecasts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

You can learn more about climate hazards, the ways they impact health, and resources to protect yourself and your community here:

Drought
Extreme Heat
Hurricane
Wildfire
Lyme and Other Tickborne Disease s
West Nile Virus and Other Mosquito-Borne Diseases
Pollen
Spring Flooding
Winter Weather

Previous editions of the Climate and Health Outlook are also available.

Thank you to the partners who provide invaluable information, expertise, and data for the Climate and Health Outlook series, including the Administration for Children and Families; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health; Department of Agriculture including but not limited to the Forest Service; Environmental Protection Agency; the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Integrated Heat Health Information System, and National Water Center; National Interagency Fire Center; Bureau of Land Management; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration; United States Geological Survey; the California Air Resources Board; the Oregon Health Authority; the San Mateo County Health Department; the USA National Phenology Network; Atlanta Allergy & Asthma; American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology; the Region 2 Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit; the California Department of Public Health; and the Maricopa County Department of Public Health.