Climate and Conflict Vulnerability Mapping of Northern, Northwestern, Eastern and Uva Provinces of Sri Lanka

1. Introduction

1.1 Basic Concept of Climate and Conflict Vulnerability

A definition of a conflict is when one party perceives that its interests/goals/aspirations are being opposed or negatively affected by another party (Wall and Callister 1995). Conflicts take place at different levels (i.e., individual, group, country) (Wall and Callister 1995). Conflicts can lead to violence and can impact national (state) security (Uppsala Conflict Data Program 2020). However, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) sees situations of conflict arising out of a lack of human security due to two aspects: “freedom from fear” and “freedom from want”. This definition goes beyond national security built on military interventions and encapsulates seven aspects: economic, food, health, environment, personal, community and political security (UNDP 1994). Conflicts can arise due to the lack of any of these aspects (UNDP 1994). These situations of insecurity are further exacerbated and are intrinsically linked to the external shock of climate change (CEPA 2021). While climate change on its own is not seen as a source for conflict, climate change shocks (or hazards) can exacerbate incompatibilities and the chances of conflict among groups, by acting as threat multipliers (Lewis and Lenton 2015). There can, however, be underlying socio-economic and political hindrances that co-mingle with climate issues to heighten insecurities that then lead to grievances, tensions and ultimately, violent conflict (Lewis and Lenton 2015).

Since independence in 1948, Sri Lanka has been subject to a long history of conflict characterized by ethnic, socio-political imbalances and competing interests over the access to political rights, state power and resources. According to Uyangoda (2007), “group discrimination, limited access to public resources and cultural marginalization” were all key factors that led to the outbreak of the 26-year ethnic conflict between the Sinhalese majority and Tamil minority as well as the JVP uprisings. While political elites of both groups are blamed for manipulating and provoking ethno-nationalist narratives to contain intercaste divisions, rising unemployment and inequalities between rural and urban areas also contribute to divisions (Perera 1992). It produced and institutionalized ethnic conflict as a way to either gain or hold on to state power. Thus, historically Sri Lanka’s conflict drivers emerge from tensions between the different ethnoreligious groups and their competing narratives of historiographies (Uyangoda 2003). These have geographic variations, further complicated by urban–rural dimensions and by the fact that some regions of the country remain lagging—with less economic and service delivery—causing dissatisfaction among communities (Perera 2001). Another form of conflict or cause for disagreement arises around how resources should be distributed amongst competing groups. In many instances the resources in question are common pool resources — which are limited and shared (non-exclusive) resources used by a range of users—both human and non-human. These include water, land, marine and aquatic resources, air, and certain types of natural and physical capital. The use of these resources can lead to exploitation by some groups and degradation of the resource (Hardin 1994).

Conflicts can arise as a consequence of scarcity coupled with the way resources are managed and applied to the socio-political landscape (CEPA 2021). In terms of scarcity, there are three types: (a) supply-induced scarcity, which occurs due to degradation or depletion of resources that limits availability; (b) demand-induced scarcity, which results from population growth, new technologies or increased consumption rates that reduce resource availability; and (c) structural scarcity, where different groups in society face unequal resource access (Homer-Dixon 1999).

Where tanks and irrigation systems have fallen into disuse and disrepair, for example, in the case of the Imbulgodayagama small tank in the Anuradhapura district and in many similar situations across the dry zone, there is inadequate water storage and supply and a lack of cooperation amongst all the users to address the problem (GCF Sri Lanka 2016). Water sharing amongst different user groups can lead to fear of a lack of water for farming or drinking; as was the case with the large-scale project to develop the Iranamadu Tank in the Kilinochchi District, to supply water to the urban areas of Jaffna Town and as well as farmers in Kilinochchi. The farmers were concerned about the availability of water for cultivation during the dry season as a result of sharing water (CEPA 2021). These situations of scarcity can lead to some users fearing a lack of access due to social status and networks, location (upstream/downstream) or due to others extracting more as a result of better access to technology (ability to pump water). This can happen due to trade-offs, particular decisions on land use or other socio-economic, political and gender issues. For example, in the case of the Wedithalathive Nature Reserve in the Mannar district, decisions about the use of and access to resources by the local community were tied up with decisions made by two national bodies – one aimed to develop aquatic resources and the other aimed to conserve the coastal ecosystem. Other interested third-party groups like environmental lobbyists also joined the fray to protect the common good. Therefore, the decisions taken by state agencies, their mandates and management responsibilities, the needs of the local communities as well as public interests had to be considered (Wikramanayaka et al. 2017; CEPA 2021). Climate change can increase the stress on common resources, causing more human insecurity as the governance systems can become strained or fail altogether (Mann 2017). However, it is also important to note that every circumstance does not result in conflict or tensions but ensuring that these situations do not arise is also necessary. It is also important to recognize that such conflicts can arise at different points in time and can also be temporary (CEPA 2021).