China Unlikely to Dominate Global Green Hydrogen Supply Chain Like It Did in Solar and EVs, Says IEA

China currently accounts for 65% of global installed or FID-stage electrolyser capacity and houses nearly 60% of global manufacturing, far outpacing any other country. Yet with over 20GW of annual manufacturing capacity now surpassing actual demand, Chinese firms could soon face the same overcapacity and underutilization issues hitting Western producers.

The IEA calculates that using Chinese equipment outside China delivers only modest reductions in the levelised cost of hydrogen, challenging the narrative that China will simply undercut Western electrolyser markets as it did in the solar sector.

The report also examines what it would take for the shipping sector to adopt hydrogen-derived fuels at scale. While more portside infrastructure and compatible bunkering systems are needed, the IEA finds that around 80 ports worldwide already have strong chemical handling capabilities. Many of these facilities are located near low-emissions hydrogen production hubs, offering early opportunities to deploy hydrogen-based marine fuels such as ammonia or methanol.

In a special focus on Southeast Asia, the IEA tracks a potential surge in low-emissions hydrogen production—up from 3,000 tonnes today to 430,000 tonnes by 2030—but warns that most announced projects remain in the concept phase.

Accelerated renewables deployment, targeted policy interventions, and pilot project support are essential to realise that growth. To support transparency, the IEA has launched a new hydrogen project tracker and an updated database covering over 1,000 policy measures and regionalised cost data for hydrogen production.