Central Texas temperatures break records, climate index shows human influence

AUSTIN, Texas — A climate analysis tool is revealing the stark reality of climate change’s impact on Central Texas as the region endures record-shattering temperatures this week.

The Climate Shift Index (CSI) map, which quantifies climate change’s influence on daily temperatures, shows Central Texas at the maximum level of 5 out of 5 on Wednesday, indicating temperatures that would be “highly unlikely” without human-caused climate change.

“These kinds of temperatures would not be happening without climate change putting a big thumb on the scale,” said CBS Austin meteorologist Avery Tomasco, who described the current conditions as a “scientific reality of how things can change on a daily basis in a warming world.”

Austin reached triple digits Tuesday for the first time in 2025, with temperatures hitting 101 degrees, breaking the previous daily record. Wednesday’s forecast predicted even higher temperatures of 104 degrees, compared to the mid-May average of 86 degrees.

The National Weather Service has issued Extreme Heat Warnings—a relatively new designation replacing the previous “excessive heat warnings”—for most of Central Texas through Wednesday evening. Temperatures in the Hill Country could reach 108 or 109 degrees.

The region is experiencing what Tomasco called a “summer-like weather pattern” driven by multiple factors: persistent drought conditions, a dry line, a high-pressure ridge, and the amplifying effect of climate change.

“101 degrees [on Tuesday] crushed the old daily record, was our third earliest trip to 100 or hotter on record, and the hottest May temperature since 2008,” Tomasco noted in his forecast.

The current “dry heat” is expected to transition to more tropical conditions in coming days. While actual temperatures may drop below 100 degrees, the heat index will continue to make it feel like 105 degrees or hotter through the weekend.

The forecast offers limited relief, with only “spotty storm chances” returning Saturday, primarily northwest of Austin. The region has experienced nine consecutive months of below-average rainfall.

Health officials warn that heat-related illnesses are more likely during extreme conditions and urge residents to take necessary precautions when working or spending time outdoors.