CAT net zero target evaluations

As of November 2023, around 145 countries had announced or are considering net zero targets, covering close to 90% of global emissions (Figure 1). Among these are China, the EU, the USA, and India, who jointly represent more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions. Figure 1: Share of global GHG emissions covered by national net zero emission targets (agreed in law, as part of an initiative, or under discussion). Compilation based on data from the Net Zero Tracker (2023) and Climate Watch (2023) as of 5 October 2023 and complemented by CAT analysis. The compilation includes countries that have joined the Climate Ambition Alliance announced at COP25 (Climate Ambition Alliance, 2019). Emissions data excluding LULUCF for 2019 taken from PRIMAP emissions database (Gütschow, Günther and Pflüger, 2021). At their best, well-designed and ambitious net zero targets are key for reducing global carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions to net zero around 2050 and 2070, respectively. This is necessary to keep to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Ambitious net zero targets can also guide the implementation of Paris-aligned actions in the short and medium term, in particular 2030 emission reduction goals. At their worst, net zero targets are unclear or not backed up by real-world action. Net zero targets can distract from the urgent need for deep emissions reductions if 2030 targets and short-term action are inconsistent with their achievement, allowing governments to “hide” behind aspirational net zero targets. Unless governments start acting now, their chances of achieving net zero will be slim. There is a clear need for a nuanced assessment of incoming national net zero targets to understand their scope, architecture, and transparency. Without such scrutiny, there is a risk that poorly backed up net zero claims could render these targets meaningless. CAT’s ten-step net zero target evaluation methodology The CAT has identified ten key elements of each country’s net zero target to assess whether the scope, architecture, and transparency meet what we define as good practice (see Figure 2). Our evaluation method remains exclusively applicable to net zero targets by national governments and cannot be directly applied to other subnational or non-state actors (especially corporations). Figure 2: Identified good practice for all ten key elements in the Climate Action Tracker’s evaluation methodology for countries’ net zero targets. Country evaluations as of November 2023 Our net zero evaluations for G20 countries and selected other countries as of November 2023 show that most net zero targets are formulated vaguely and do not yet conform with good practice across different design elements. Robust short-term targets and pathways towards achieving them will be required to fully realise their ambition. These evaluations aim to provide a nuanced assessment of national net zero targets to understand their scope, architecture, and transparency. Without such scrutiny, there is a risk that poorly backed up net zero claims could render these targets meaningless. Table 1: Overview of Climate Action Tracker’s net zero target evaluations for G20 member countries (excluding France and Italy as both not separately analysed by the CAT) and selected other countries per key elements as of November 2023 Governments need to improve their net zero target design. In total, according to the CAT’s “good practice” net zero analysis, the design of net zero targets covering a total of 75% of global emissions remains insufficient (Figure 3). Only five of the 41 countries covered by the CAT, responsible for 7% of global GHG emissions, have defined their net zero targets in a manner the CAT rates as ‘acceptable’ in terms of scope, architecture, and transparency. Another nine countries, responsible for 21% of global emissions, fall into the ‘average’ category. We are a long way from converting net zero targets into policies and actions that will result in real-world emissions reductions. Figure 3: Share of global GHG emissions by Climate Action Tracker’s headline evaluation for announced net zero targets as of November 2023. Emissions data excluding LULUCF for 2019 taken from PRIMAP emissions database (Gütschow et al., 2021). In-depth net zero evaluation by country The in-depth evaluation for all net zero targets on scope, target architecture, and transparency are available on the country assessment pages. Argentina — Net zero evaluation Australia — Net zero evaluation Bhutan — Net zero evaluation Brazil — Net zero evaluation Canada — Net zero evaluation Chile — Net zero evaluation China — Net zero evaluation Colombia — Net zero evaluation Costa Rica — Net zero evaluation Ethiopia — Net zero evaluation European Union — Net zero evaluation Germany — Net zero evaluation India — Net zero evaluation Indonesia — Net zero evaluation Iran — Net zero evaluation Japan — Net zero evaluation Kazakhstan — Net zero evaluation Kenya — Net zero evaluation Mexico — Net zero evaluation Morocco — Net zero evaluation Nepal — Net zero evaluation New Zealand — Net zero evaluation Nigeria — Net zero evaluation Norway — Net zero evaluation Peru — Net zero evaluation Philipines — Net zero evaluation Republic of Korea — Net zero evaluation Russian Federation — Net zero evaluation Saudi Arabia — Net zero evaluation Singapore — Net zero evaluation South Africa — Net zero evaluation Switzerland — Net zero evaluation Thailand — Net zero evaluation Türkiye — Net zero evaluation Ukraine — Net zero evaluation United Arab Emirates — Net zero evaluation United Kingdom — Net zero evaluation United States of America — Net zero evaluation Viet Nam — Net zero evaluation Featured work The CAT net zero assessments have been featured in the following recent publications (listed chronological order). Scientific and research reports UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023 – Chapter 3 on ‘Nationally determined contributions and long-term pledges: The global landscape and G20 member progress’ Rogelj, J., Fransen, T., den Elzen, M., Lamboll, R., Schumer, C., Kuramochi, T., Hans, F., Mooldijk, S., Portugal-Pereira, J. (2023). Credibility gap in net-zero targets leaves world on high-risk climate track. Science Policy Forum. Vol 380, Issue 6649. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adg6248 UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2022 – Chapter 3 on ‘Nationally determined contributions and long-term pledges: The global landscape and G20 member progress’ UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021 – Chapter 3 on ‘Net zero emissions targets’ Höhne, N., Gidden, M.J., den Elzen, M. et al. (2021) Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change. 11, 820–822. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01142-2 Media & other coverage El Pais (05.03.2023) Tres de los seis países con mejores compromisos climáticos a 2050 son latinos World Economic Forum (07.09.2021) What makes a good net zero target? Comment in Climate Home News (22.06.2021) on What makes a good net zero target? by Silke Mooldijk, Frederic Hans and Claire Fyson Climate Action Tracker (2021) ‘Evaluation methodology for national net zero targets’. Climate Action Tracker (CAT); NewClimaite Institute; Climate Analytics. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/859/CAT_Evaluation-methodology-for-national-net-zero-targets.pdf. Climate Ambition Alliance (2019) Climate Ambition Alliance. Annex I: Enhanced ambition in national climate plans & Annex II: Net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. UNFCCC. Available at: https://cop25.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Annex-Alliance-ENGLISH.pdf. Climate Watch (2023) ‘Net-Zero Tracker [5 October 2023]’. World Resources Institute. Available at: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/net-zero-tracker(Accessed: 5 October 2023). Gütschow, J., Günther, A. and Pflüger, M. (2021) ‘The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019)’. 2021. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.5175154. Net Zero Tracker (2023) ‘Net zero targets database [5 October 2023]’. NewClimate Institute, Oxford Net Zero, Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit; Data-Driven EnviroLab. Available at: https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fdownload.zerotracker.net%2Fcsv%2Fsnapshot_2022-10-25_07-06-05.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK(Accessed: 5 October 2023). Stay informed Subscribe to our newsletter