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Canadian Natural Gas Prices Poised for Breakout as LNG Sector Finally Booms

Natural Gas Intelligence · last updated

The Canadian natural gas market is on the cusp of a new era as LNG Canada’s first cargo makes its way toward South Korea and three more export terminals are in advanced development, setting the stage for supply, demand and prices to rise.

Line chart showing the projected forward basis differentials for NOVA/AECO C compared to U.S. benchmark pricing from August 2025 through July 2035. The curve indicates a gradual tightening trend in the negative basis, improving from around -$2.50/MMBtu in 2025 toward -$1.00/MMBtu by 2035, based on NGI’s Forward Look data.

“The emerging LNG industry could transform Canada’s west coast into a significant energy export hub – one that supplies secure energy to our trading partners and fuels economic growth at home,” said CEO Lisa Baiton of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

Western Canadian natural gas prices have for years traded below Henry Hub in the United States, which has become the world’s largest LNG exporter. Prices have continued to flounder. Robust production, a lack of pipeline capacity, wavering U.S. import demand and seasonality have all combined to hold prices back.