Can Carbon Removal Save the World?

It has been 10 years since the COP21 in Paris, where world leaders committed to keep global temperature increase under 2°C (and ideally closer to 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels. But progress has been mixed.

The world is finally beginning to take scientists’ long ignored warnings about climate change seriously. Governments are imposing a price on emissions and channelling funds into climate mitigation. Businesses are making science-based pledges to cut emissions. Entrepreneurs are developing innovative solutions to reduce GHGs. 

These efforts have resulted in some positive developments. We are seeing a decline in emissions in developed economies and signs of delinking emissions from growth even in emerging nations. However, the earth’s surface temperatures continue to rise. In 2023, the global average already reached 1.5°C above the pre-industrial reference period, a record broken again in 2024 as the figure inched closer to 1.6°C. 

This does not mean COP21’s 1.5°C threshold has already been broken. Scientists point out the target referred to a long-term average and there were other mitigating factors behind the exceptional temperatures of 2023 and 2024. Still, the long-term trend in temperatures and the increase in extreme weather events, from floods to wildfires, do raise concerns about whether attempts to cut GHG emissions are enough. 

Time to get serious about carbon removal?

According to a pathway suggested by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), capping global warming at 1.5°C would require emissions to peak by 2025 and decline 43 percent by 2030. However, emissions are still hitting record highs. The 2024 UN Emissions Gap Report estimates that even with current pledges, temperatures would still increase by 2.6-3.1°C. This could result in dramatic events, from the drying out of the Amazon rainforest to the melting of the Arctic ice sheets, with catastrophic outcomes. 

Cutting back on GHG emissions should be an urgent priority. However, climate experts increasingly admit that current efforts don’t get us close to meeting the Paris goals. To bridge this shortfall, we must find innovative ways to remove a significant amount of the GHG gases already in the atmosphere.