Bolivia natural gas output falling below gui...

Bolivia’s goal to reverse falling natural gas production looks to be further out of reach as output continues to drop.

Data extrapolated from the country’s statistics agency INE reveals that gas production in the first quarter averaged 28.7Mm3/d, below this year’s forecast of 29.3Mm3/d set by state hydrocarbons company YPFB.

The 2025 guidance is the lowest since the nationalization of the hydrocarbons sector in 2006. Nevertheless, YPFB head Armin Dorgathen has said that gas output will hit an “inflection point” in the coming years because of renewed exploration efforts.

When compared to 1Q24, gas production in the first three months of 2025 slid 16% to 2.59Bm3, according to INE metrics.

The current government and sector authorities attribute the downward spiral to underinvestment in exploration and the natural decline of fields and acknowledge that the rigid statist framework needs to be modernized and that private sector participation is necessary.

To buckle the trend, YPFB continues to advance its upstream reactivation plan of 56 exploration wells launched under President Luis Arce.

The state operator has pinned hopes on a new flagship project, the US$400mn buildout of the Mayaya field, which holds an estimated 1.7Tf3 of gas and was cataloged by S&P Global as one of the world’s 10 largest hydrocarbon discoveries of 2024.

Arce’s administration has also introduced a bill that would amend upstream promotion law 767 from 2015. The move aims to ease the State’s grasp of the sector and make the operating environment more attractive for companies by expanding the scope of existing incentives and incorporating new ones.

Officials highlight there are already signs that a thaw is underway, led by the entrance of new companies such as Fluxus and Canacol Energy, with pledged investment by the latter across four areas totaling nearly US$300mn.

Natural Gas Production (Source: YPFB)