Blog: EU Missing in Action?

The EU’s climate ambition is now up for negotiation, and the bloc is increasingly divided. Some countries want to dilute targets, while others are still pushing for action based on the advice of the scientific advisory board.

Three options for a 2040 target from the EU’s impact assessment are on the table: S1 is the weakest scenario which assumes a reduction of up to 80% (incl. LULUCF) compared to 1990 and is consistent with the minimum required under the European Climate Law. S2 is slightly more ambitious than S1 and anticipates a reduction of 85–90% (incl. LULUCF) compared to 1990. S3 sees a reduction of 90–95% (incl. LULUCF) compared to 1990 and is the only scenario consistent with the ESABCC’s recommendation.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has analysed what the different 2040 options on the table could mean for a 2035 target.

To derive 2035 targets, we assume the EU would take a linear approach – drawing a straight line from 2030 to the different 2040 reduction targets. None of these derived 2035 targets are 1.5˚C aligned. We would strongly advise against the EU taking such an approach because a lack of strong, near-term action puts the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit in jeopardy and increases the associated risks.

If the EU is to have any chance of reaching climate neutrality by 2050, it must adopt an ambitious domestic 2035 target—74% or more (excluding LULUCF)—alongside a 2040 target of at least 90%, ideally 95% (incl. LULUCF), and achieve these reductions within its own borders. Otherwise it will not be possible to reach its own net zero target by 2050.