Beryl threat growing for South Texas as hurricane forecasts indicate potentially stronger storm - Fox Weather

Beryl threat grows for South Texas as forecasts indicate potentially stronger storm | Fox Weather

Hurricane Watches issued for Texas coastline ahead of Beryl's impacts

The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center now suggests Beryl will make landfall on the Texas side of the border as a Category 1 hurricane on Monday morning with peak winds of 85 mph.

Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch issued for large part of Texas coastline

For the first time during the 2024 hurricane season, parts of Texas are under a Hurricane Watch ahead of the arrival of Beryl.

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Beryl's threat now covers the entire Gulf Coast of Texas as the storm readies to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. Beryl weakened to a tropical storm Friday afternoon after pummeling Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula but is forecast to regain hurricane strength in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Due to the threat for the Lone Star State, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the state's coastline, south of the Houston/Galveston metro.

A Storm Surge Watch is also now in effect from the Rio Grande northward to Sargent, Texas. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a potential for life-threatening water rises within the next 48 hours.

Storm Surge models indicate a water rise of 5 feet is possible as Beryl approaches late in the weekend and on Monday.

Mexico's government has also issued a Hurricane Watch from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
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"This storm is not going to spend much time over the Yucatan," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "(Thursday), it wasn't clear if it was going to be over that kind of fat part of the Yucatán Peninsula, or kind of cut off the corner and be the skinnier part, and it looks like the skinnier part is the answer."

Less time over land means Beryl will get into the Gulf of Mexico sooner – perhaps as early as Friday evening.

"That means it spends more time over the warm waters of the Gulf," Norcross added.

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Forecasts indeed show Beryl's weakening trend over land Friday morning will reverse once Beryl gets back over the warm, open waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, slowly regaining strength.

Computer models show the atmosphere in the western Gulf of Mexico will become less hostile to tropical development over the weekend while the storm begins to feed off water temperatures in the mid-80s.

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"Such an environment should favor strengthening," the NHC said, adding their new forecasts now show a stronger Beryl.

In addition, more recent model computations are showing growing confidence of a further northern track as Beryl cuts across a more northern stripe of the Yucatan, suggesting higher odds of a landfall along the Texas coast.

"If it were to take the right-hand track somewhere up into central Texas, maybe even affecting at least the southern part of the metro Houston area, it's likely to be a stronger hurricane because it has more time over the water and also take longer to get there," Norcross said. "So the certainty based on what we know from the computers is this is a Texas event because the bad weather is on the right side (of the storm)."

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'This isn’t just a South Texas event anymore'

The latest forecast cone from the NHC agrees, and now indicates Beryl will likely make landfall on the Texas side of the border as a Category 1 hurricane overnight Sunday into Monday morning with peak winds of 85 mph.

If that verifies, there would be significant impacts in South Texas including strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge along the coast. That's the same coastline that was impacted by circulation around Tropical Storm Alberto earlier this year.

The NHC says Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later Friday.

For the rainfall impacts, a wide swath of South Texas, including Brownsville, Corpus Christi and Port Mansfield, are in a Level 2 out of 4 threat for flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. Initial forecasts suggest as much as 4-8 inches of rain along the coastal areas from Brownsville to Houston and even farther inland.

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"This is not a (Hurricane) Harvey event, but this is a heavy rain event because the storm is going to be moving more slowly than it is now," Norcross said. "Now, Texas is not in drought anymore, but it's not excessively wet either. So they can take some of this rain. But some of this rain over the Hill Country and in metropolitan Houston could be a significant problem."

Houston Metro Rain Forecast

Any of the outer rain bands could also produce tropical storm-force gusts and even spin up an isolated tornado, meteorologists with the National Weather Service office in Corpus Christi, Texas said Thursday. Winds could increase as early as Sunday morning with peak gusts expected on Sunday night.

"This isn't just a South Texas event anymore," Norcross said. "This is an event for all of eastern Texas and all the big cities from San Antonio to Austin and especially metro Houston. Not to mention, of course, Corpus Christi, Matagorda Bay, storm surge along the coast."