Are biofuels a climate bust? - POLITICO - POLITICO

Are biofuels a climate bust? - POLITICO

Are biofuels a climate bust?

With help from Wes Venteicher and Camille von Kaenel

FUEL FIGHT: Biofuels have shaky climate bona fides at best. But California is about to double down on promoting them.

The California Air Resources Board is getting ready to amend its low-carbon fuel standard, which sets an emissions limit for transportation fuels. It lets fuel producers generate and sell credits for making low-carbon fuels.

It’s been a huge boon, alongside federal incentives, for biofuels like renewable diesel, biodiesel and ethanol, which can be made from corn, soy, agricultural waste and other crops, and for biomethane produced from dairy manure gas.

But there are longstanding questions about the fuels’ climate benefits. Environmental groups point to studies showing ethanol’s carbon footprint is worse than gasoline’s when you account for land use and that running trucks on methane gas can produce more air pollution than diesel.

“From a greenhouse gas perspective, I would say it’s just highly uncertain,” said Jim Duffy, a former manager of CARB’s transportation fuels branch who’s now advocating to move the LCFS away from combustible fuels, which currently generate 80 percent of the credits, and toward electrification.

A key rulemaking document that CARB put out last month showed its preferred policies would maintain credits for manure through 2040 and would allow unlimited use of crop-based fuels.

Some board members are asking questions. “With all of these different strategies, have you seen actual data to support them being successful?” board member Susan Shaheen asked of crop-based fuels at a Sept. 28 board meeting.

Others point out that electric vehicles have taken off since the LCFS began in 2009, reducing the need for combustion-based fuels. That’s partly due to CARB’s other policies, including its emissions standards and purchasing mandates for zero-emission passenger vehicles and trucks.

“In most other rulemakings related to climate and transportation, ARB has made a very clear statement that electrification is the future,” said Michael Wara, director of Stanford University’s climate program.

Even if EVs displace all internal-combustion cars as California envisions, the agency still sees a role for biofuels in planes and other heavy-duty, hard-to-decarbonize transportation sectors. By one estimate, a full global transition to sustainable aviation fuels could require four to five times as much land for biofuels than is used today.

CARB plans to release draft amendments in the next few weeks, with a public comment period and more potential changes to follow, spokesperson Lys Mendez said in an email. The agency expects to vote in the first quarter of next year.

Did someone forward you this newsletter? Sign up here!

TRUCKERS STRIKE BACK: CARB may view electrification and hydrogen as the future of trucking in the long-term, but the California Trucking Association (CTA) has a different idea.

The industry group filed a lawsuit today against the California Air Resources Board’s Advanced Clean Fleets rule, which ends fossil-fuel powered truck sales by 2036 and requires large trucking companies to transition their fleets to zero-emissions by 2042.

Their argument was similar to what it’s been all along:

“Our objection to the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation comes down to the lack of planning and coordination with other state agencies, nonexistent infrastructure, unprecedented demands on the state power grid, the wildly unrealistic timeline mandated by CARB for phasing into medium- and heavy-duty truck technology that is still in development and a clearly unachievable regulation that is in direct violation of multiple federal laws,” CTA CEO Eric Sauer said in a statement.

We know the Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association won’t pile on. They agreed not to sue the state over the regulation in July in exchange for CARB relaxing some short-term requirements for trucks to reduce smog.

CARB spokesperson Lys Mendez said the agency doesn’t comment on litigation.

The rule is scheduled to take effect Jan 1.

For those hedging their bets, CARB is still hosting an Advanced Clean Fleets training webinar on Thursday.

SMOOTH OPERATOR: Natural gas, batteries and energy imports helped keep the lights on and toasters operational when solar dropped off during Saturday morning’s partial eclipse.

The power grid remained stable, according to the California Independent System Operator, which planned for months for solar’s sharp drop-off and rapid return.

California was short roughly seven gigawatts of solar power compared to what it likely would have had without the eclipse — enough to power around seven million homes. The shortage was a little less than expected, likely due to the cloud cover that ruined some eclipse-chasers’ days on Saturday.

CAISO will release a report detailing the event in December, spokesperson Anne Gonzales said in an email.

WHITHER GAS PRICES: Gov. Gavin Newsom urged the Energy Commission three weeks ago to hurry up and do something about the state’s rising gasoline prices, which on Monday reached an average of $5.60 per gallon — a full $2 above the national average.

On Wednesday, the commission will take votes on two of Newsom’s recommendations during its regular monthly meeting. The first would start the process of considering a profit cap on gasoline. The second could initiate emergency action to expand the data the commission gathers from oil companies or to expand oversight of refinery maintenance schedules, which have been linked to price spikes.

The commission gained the authority to take both actions under a law that Newsom and lawmakers passed early this year during a special session of the Legislature he called after average gas prices cleared $6 per gallon last year. The commission’s new Division of Petroleum Market Oversight has been gathering new data from oil companies since summer under the law.

NORRIS TO WCB: The California Wildlife Conservation Board has a new executive director: Jennifer Norris, a deputy secretary at the Natural Resources Agency who has been leading the state’s push to conserve 30 percent of the land and coastal waters in the state by 2030.

The board selects and funds conservation and restoration projects. Norris told POLITICO she would take her experience of partnering with a wide range of groups to the job.

“I am really excited to build on WCB’s legacy and take it into the next wave of conservation in California, really advancing equity and working with tribes,” she said.

Norris starts Nov. 1.

— The state’s second largest oil producer has formally announced its plans for a carbon capture project at the Belridge oil field in Kern County.

— Business-to-business market intelligence firm Post Script Media will be expanding and rebranding as Latitude Media, to provide a deep dive into climate technology.

Follow Us