APS releases energy plan, eyes green power to meet Arizona's demand - The Arizona Republic

APS releases energy plan, eyes green power to meet Arizona's demand

APS takes a turn to the green, forecasting more wind, solar power in growing Arizona
Russ Wiles

Utility Arizona Public Service expects to ramp up its use of solar, wind and other green energy sources while continuing to rely on natural gas and other options as it focuses on serving an expanding customer base over the next 15 years.

The forecast, which envisions more people and businesses moving to Arizona and more electric vehicles on the road, was made in the company’s latest Integrated Resource Plan filed with the Arizona Corporation Commission.

“Our state is growing rapidly and when we think about how important reliable power is for customers, and especially considering the unique challenges Arizona’s summers bring, it’s critical we plan years in advance,” said Jacob Tetlow, APS’ executive vice president of operations, in a prepared statement.

He said the company has tried to work collaboratively “while maintaining affordable rates for our customers well into the future.” APS has received input over the past year from local consumer advocates, university researchers, resource developers and environmental and public interest organizations.

Power utility Salt River Project earlier released its own long-term roadmap for electricity generation and demand that seeks a balance among affordability, reliability and sustainability. SRP intends to rely on natural gas and coal for at least another decade or so but with increased use of green energy sources.

More: SRP unveils energy plan that seeks balance among pricing, reliability and sustainability

APS plans to end its coal dependence by 2031. Among larger power-generating sources for APS, natural gas currently accounts for about 39% of electricity capacity, followed by renewables such as solar and wind at 11%, coal at 10% and nuclear power at 9%. Another 29% is provided by customer-based programs ranging from rooftop solar-power generation to conservation efforts focused around smart thermostats, efficient air conditioning/heating systems and more.

Some environmental critics say the plan continues to rely too significantly on carbon-based fuels, especially natural gas, though APS plans to eliminate coal-fired sources with the planned retirement of the Cholla Power Plant by 2025 and the company’s exit from the Four Corners Power Plant in 2031.

Growing power needs in Arizona

APS said its planners used extensive modeling and data analysis to forecast energy demand. Today, APS makes available almost 9,400 megawatts of electricity, enough to power around 1.5 million homes. By the end of 2027, APS customers will need about 11,350 megawatts, with the amount rising to 13,000 by 2031 and 14,820 by the end of the forecast period in 2038.

APS, the principal subsidiary of Pinnacle West Capital Corp., currently serves about 1.4 million homes and businesses in 11 of Arizona's 15 counties. It prepares these plans once every three years.

Arizona is experiencing a boom in growth and development, and the state’s population is expected to increase by an average of more than 1.3% annually, the report said. That translates to about 23,000 new APS customers each year.

Customers are using more electricity, not only with air conditioners to keep cool in the summer and heaters to keep warm in the winter but also with more devices and machinery. APS forecasts that more than 1 million electric vehicles will be on roads within its service territory by 2037.

In addition to residential customer growth, large businesses like manufacturing companies and data centers are moving to and expanding in APS’s service territory. In fact, data centers account for a significant amount of expected new demand, the company said. Data centers are buildings or complexes that specifically house computers, telecommunication equipment and other components.

APS envisions an electricity supply that’s 100% clean and carbon-free by 2050, though not by 2038. Along the way, the utility will add more solar and wind power, coupled with battery storage, largely to capture wind and solar power. The utility increasingly will use wind energy from New Mexico. Battery storage also will provide value and help affordability, the company said. The plan envisions nearly 140 miles of transmission-line additions and upgrades.

APS said that maintaining a diverse energy portfolio allows it to prioritize affordability for customers while making the system "more resilient to the risks associated with any single technology or fuel source."

Mixed reviews from environmentalists

Alex Routhier, Arizona clean energy manager and senior policy adviser at Western Resource Advocates, praised APS for allowing more input from stakeholders this time in developing its plan compared to prior years, but he criticized the company for not reducing greenhouse gases enough.

"The plan falls well short of an 80% reduction (from 2005 levels) in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030," he said in a prepared statement, citing what the conservation group calls a science-based standard for emission reductions.

Sandy Bahr, director of the Sierra Club's Grand Canyon chapter, indicated she was pleased that APS is ending its involvement with the Four Corners coal plant but said doing so earlier than 2031 would be cheaper, with fewer emissions in the meantime that pollute and worsen the climate crisis.

"Unlike the APS plan, we think it is feasible to replace Four Corners with clean renewable resources before 2031," Bahr said in a statement. "Clean resources such as solar and wind and deeper investments in energy efficiency will help APS meet reliability, affordability and sustainability needs as it claims it wants to do.”

Natural gas will remain a significant power source for APS, though gas' share of the pie will decrease over the next decade and a half. The utility views natural gas as reliable, relatively inexpensive and capable of ramping up quickly to meet demand surges.

Nuclear power also will play a role. APS owns and operates the Palo Verde Generating Station in the far West Valley. The report described the complex as the nation's largest power provider of any kind.

“The plant’s continued operation is vital to a clean, reliable and affordable energy future for Arizona,” the company said.

More about the plan and Arizona’s energy future can be viewed at aps.com/resources.

Reach the writer at russ.wiles@arizonarepublic.com.