Analysis suggests climate change, population growth could ... - University of Minnesota Twin Cities
Analysis suggests climate change, population growth could supercharge malaria risk | CIDRAP
An analysis published by the Washington Post yesterday, based on modeling projections and the situation unfolding in Mozambique, suggests that climate change and demographic growth could put 5 billion more people at risk for malaria by 2040.
The analysis said longer transmission seasons and migration of mosquitoes to new latitudes threaten to undo years of progress. The new report also said Mozambique and other countries with highest malaria burden also have some of the world’s fastest-growing populations.
Of the 5 billion more people expected to be at higher risk in 2040, 1 billion are in Africa. The Post also estimates that 330 million people in South America could be at risk by 2070. The report notes that changing climate patterns not only encourage mosquito habitats, but also make it difficult to time control measures, such as indoor spraying.
The report provided detailed projections for different regions. In the United States, for example, warming temperatures and increased rainfall could lengthen malaria transmission seasons in some areas of the South, posing a threat where there is no population immunity—factors that could lead to higher morbidity and mortality.
Support for tools to battle resistant malaria
In another malaria development, Ocean Biomedical announced today that one of its scientists, Jonathan Kurtis, MD, has received a $1 million Falk Medical Research Trust Transformational Award to further the development of a new class of antimalaria drug candidates.
The program—focused on three key targets in the malaria parasite’s blood stage—includes a small-molecule drug candidate for treating severe malaria and an antibody for short-term prevention. The company said the tools are designed to address growing resistance to current artemisinin-based therapies.
Related Knowledge Center: Climate economics
Climate change is now a driver of the world’s economy. The impact is profound:
- Catastrophic weather events — hurricanes, floods, droughts, high temperatures — are more frequent and more extreme. The cost can be measured in both the initial damage caused and the longer-term impact on the economy.
- Vulnerable communities are increasing climate-related investments, hardening infrastructure and taking other protective measures.
- Investment in carbon capture and storage technologies is increasingly rapidly.
- Governments are making investments and crafting regulations to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
On top of all of this is the cost of uncertainty. As the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in 2018 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, says, “The assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.”