Analysis | How Biden's climate law will — and won't — transform America

Almost a year ago, President Biden signed into law the most ambitious climate bill in the nation’s history. Now, as a blistering heat wave bakes the southern United States, a timely new report illustrates how the Inflation Reduction Act will help reshape American life, even as it cannot prevent the worst effects of a warming world. The report released today by the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm, projects that the climate law will help dramatically cut planet-warming emissions from the power sector and transportation. Solar panels will spring up on more rooftops, while electric vehicles will replace gas guzzlers in more driveways. At the same time, the law will have a limited effect on highly polluting industrial processes such as chemical and steel production. And overall, the law won’t put the United States on a path to meeting Biden’s pledge under the Paris climate accord, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. As we approach the law’s first anniversary, here are three ways the Inflation Reduction Act will — and won’t — transform America’s efforts to trim its outsize carbon footprint, according to the report and outside experts: 1. Clean energy will get much cheaper The climate law is already slashing the price of wind turbines, solar panels and other sources of renewable energy, making them increasingly cost-competitive with new natural gas plants. The report’s authors looked at the levelized cost of energy — the average cost of electricity generation over the lifetime of a facility — for solar and wind farms with and without the clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act. — For solar facilities built in 2022, the levelized cost of energy is about 38 percent lower under the climate law, according to Rhodium. — For wind facilities built last year, the levelized cost of energy is about 55 percent lower. The lower costs will help make the economic case for renewables, rather than natural gas plants, to replace retiring coal plants. By 2035, wind and solar alone could account for 39 to 65 percent of power generation, the report found. But beyond cost, other obstacles will continue to slow the deployment of renewables nationwide. In particular, clean energy projects will still face a lengthy permitting process and long wait times for connecting to the grid. “If cost is less of a barrier, all the other headwinds remain,” the report says. 2. Industry is a tough nut to crack The Inflation Reduction Act will have a more limited effect on industry, which is expected to overtake transportation as the country’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, the report found. — “Industry” might sound vague, but it specifically refers to carbon-intensive processes such as petroleum refining and the production of chemicals, iron, steel and cement. — These processes all have one thing in common: They require heating up materials at very high temperatures. Cement, for instance, is baked in a giant kiln at around 2,700 degrees Fahrenheit. “A bunch of these emissions are coming from burning stuff to heat stuff up,” said Ben King, an associate director with Rhodium and lead author of the report. “We think there’s an opportunity to electrify those processes, but we’re still trying to crack the nut on those solutions.” Anand Gopal, executive director of the think tank Energy Innovation, which was not involved in the Rhodium analysis, endorsed the findings. “We agree with Rhodium’s assessment that industry is unfortunately going to be the highest-emitting sector as we make lots of progress on power and transportation,” Gopal said. “Industry does require a lot of attention going forward.” 3. State climate action will be key Even with the Inflation Reduction Act, the United States won’t be on track to meet Biden’s target under the Paris agreement: cutting emissions between 50 and 52 percent by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. Instead, the climate law will put the country on a path to reduce emissions between 29 and 42 percent in 2030, according to the report. Those findings are broadly in line with recent estimates from the REPEAT Project, a group of energy researchers led by Princeton University. Analysts agree that additional climate policies at the state and federal level will be needed. But with a divided Congress unlikely to pass additional climate legislation, states are in the driver’s seat, King said. One of the most meaningful steps states could take, he said, is following California’s lead in banning the sale of gasoline-powered cars by 2035, although such efforts could encounter industry opposition. But “states are going to have to step up to help close that gap,” King said. On the Hill House panel approves bill to cut EPA, Interior funding The House Appropriations Committee yesterday advanced a spending bill with deep cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency, the Interior Department and other agencies crucial to President Biden’s climate agenda. The Interior-Environment spending bill for fiscal 2024, which passed along party lines, would slash the EPA’s budget by 39 percent, returning the agency to funding levels last seen in 1991. The measure would also: — Cut the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s budget by 14 percent compared to last year’s funding levels. — Rescind nearly $7.8 billion from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund created by the Inflation Reduction Act. — Remove federal protections for species including the lesser prairie chicken and nearly all gray wolves in the Lower 48. Rep. Chellie Pingree (Maine), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior and Environment, said in a statement that if the bill passes in its current form, “all of our climate progress will be rolled back, and America’s ability to address climate change will be utterly debilitated.” The Democratic-controlled Senate has yet to release its version of the bill, but the two chambers will probably struggle to land a deal on a final appropriations bill to send to the president. Democrats are unlikely to budge when it comes to maintaining the spending in their signature climate law. Senate defense package includes bill to boost nuclear Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) yesterday released the chamber’s version of the National Defense Authorization Act, which includes a bipartisan bill that seeks to boost the nation’s nuclear energy industry. The ADVANCE Act, which was introduced in April by Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Thomas R. Carper (D-Del.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), passed the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee by a vote of 16-3 and has since received broad support from other lawmakers and industry groups. The bill would empower the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to hire and train more specialized staff to review and approve advanced nuclear reactor licenses. It is broadly aimed at boosting the nation’s leadership in nuclear development and pushing the market away from foreign adversaries such as Russia and China. “Not only is it in America’s best interest to continue developing and deploying more nuclear energy reactors from an energy and environmental standpoint, it is also vital to our national security and good for the economy,” Capito said in a statement. International climate As the world sizzles, China says it will deal with climate its own way As wide swaths of the Northern Hemisphere swelter in dangerous heat this week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared yesterday that Beijing alone will decide how — and how quickly — it addresses climate change, The Washington Post’s Christian Shepherd, Emily Rauhala and Chris Mooney report. Xi’s comments to top Communist Party officials came as U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry wrapped up three days of talks with his Chinese counterpart. Kerry described the talks as “very cordial, very direct, and, I think, very productive,” but he acknowledged that they did not produce a significant breakthrough. China will pursue its commitments “unswervingly,” but the pace of such efforts “should and must be” determined without outside interference, Xi said in remarks reported Wednesday by Chinese state news agency Xinhua. The comments marked a break from the 2015 Paris climate accord, in which a Chinese-U.S. agreement paved the way for the international goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. China has already surpassed the United States as the world’s largest annual greenhouse gas emitter, and approved the construction of dozens of coal plants last year even as it added more renewable power. In the atmosphere Seniors are migrating to states that face America’s most extreme heat— Joshua Partlow, Greg Morton, Scott Dance and Brianna Sacks for The Post Historically bad heat wave isn’t close to over: 5 maps to make you sweat— Dan Stillman for The Post EPA proposal clarifies state, tribal control of water permits— Drew Hutchinson for Bloomberg Law Drought, deluge and the climate curious farmers of central Illinois— Zachary Nauth for WBEZ Chicago Viral ICYMI, the company Fervo Energy on Tuesday said it had achieved a breakthrough for geothermal energy, while the Energy Department has also launched what it calls the “Enhanced Geothermal Shot.” But at least one random dude at every D.C. party is skeptical: 😂 So, this geothermal company just announced their first commercially viable project, but this energy analyst is doubtful of their cost competitiveness because of reverse engineered DOE numbers, but apparently the DOE kinda made them up. Also, he’s an advisor to a competing geothe—— Christian Fong (@christiantfong) pic.twitter.com/GMWC61oCLM July 19, 2023 Thanks for reading!