Alan Northcutt: With climate change, ordinary summers a thing of the ... - Waco Tribune-Herald

Alan Northcutt: With climate change, ordinary summers a thing of the past in Central Texas

The climate crisis is defined by an abundance of weather extremes, and these have been on full display this summer. The Northern Hemisphere has been assaulted by heat waves, floods and wildfires. July was the hottest month in recorded history, with an incredible 80% of humanity (6.5 billion people) suffering in the heat. The Southern Hemisphere was also impacted, with an amazing 102 F in Chile during winter.

World Weather Attribution. Until about five years ago, the conventional wisdom stated that climate change was a factor in unusual weather, but could not be considered the cause of individual events. When Friederike Otto and colleagues formed World Weather Attribution, this wisdom began to change, and in 2023 we can state that the climate crisis causes extreme weather events. In June and July of 2023, North America (including Waco), Europe and China experienced severe heat waves, marked by increased hospitalizations and deaths from heat illness, power demand spikes, water shortages and crop damage. WWA, using peer-reviewed methodology, concluded that “maximum heat like in July 2023 would have been virtually impossible to occur in the US/Mexico region and Southern Europe if humans had not warmed the planet by burning fossil fuels.” Thus, the heat waves observed this summer in North America have been caused by global warming. But can we attribute the climate change-induced heat specifically in Waco?

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Climate Shift Index. This index, a peer-reviewed tool developed by scientists at climatecentral.org, helps answer this question. The index scale extends from minus-5 (5 times less likely due to climate change) to plus-5 (5 times more likely due to climate change), for any point on the globe, for any date. The CSI map reveals that over the last eleven days, for example, the high temperatures seen in Waco have been 5 times more likely with the presence of climate change than without, or are “exceptional events driven by climate change.” Any doubt about the role of the climate crisis in Waco’s heat wave has scientifically been removed.

Extreme heat. The hottest June and July ever recorded globally occurred this year. The Waco area has experienced more than 35 days with high temperatures at 100 F or higher, and 10 days with high temperatures 105 F or higher, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. On July 17, 2023, a record was set for the highest temperature ever recorded for this date — 106 F.

In addition to these air temperature records, it is informative to consider the temperature of other parts of our environment. Measured with a laser infrared thermometer, I found the following in my surroundings: indoor wood floor 69 F, grass in shade 89 F, concrete porch in shade 98.4 F, grass in sunlight 111 F, concrete curb 133 F and asphalt street 147 F. Thus, our solid surroundings are often hotter than the air we breathe.
Lake Waco water just reaches a marker near Twin Bridges Park in mid-July. After spring rains raised the lake level by two feet, a summer heat wave and a return to drought conditions have lowered the lake level to more than nine feet below normal.

Heat-related illness. Included in this category are sunburn, heat exhaustion, heatstroke, cardiovascular and pulmonary complications, renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, kidney stones, negative impacts on fetal health, and preterm birth. The “Heat & Health Tracker” map from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that our region of Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Oklahoma/Arkansas ranked in first or second place for the most numerous emergency department visits for heat-related illness in the U.S. during June, July and August. Further, the Heat Vulnerability Index of McLennan County ranges from 0.211 to 0.981 (index maximum 1.0), indicating many citizens of the county are at very high risk of HRI.

Heat mortality. Surprisingly, more people die from heat-related illness than any other natural disaster. Some of the deadliest heat waves on record include Europe, 2003, 30,000 deaths; Russia, 2010, 56,000 deaths; India/Pakistan, 2015, 3,600 deaths; and Europe, 2022, 61,000 deaths. To my knowledge, heat-related deaths are not tabulated by the Waco-McLennan County Health District. However, the local danger of extreme heat for all ages is illustrated by the tragic death of 23-year-old Jose Cruz Rodriguez in Waco in 2021. Cruz died of heatstroke in the parking lot at his UPS job, according to OSHA, in a story that gained international notoriety.

Future heat. The Union of Concerned Scientists has projected that if the world continues its current emissions trajectory, by midcentury Waco will experience an average of 95 days per year with a heat index over 100 F, and 63 days with a heat index over 105 F. How many tourists will walk the Magnolia grounds in these conditions? In addition, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Risk Index scores U.S. counties for 18 natural hazards. For heat waves, McLennan County is at “relatively high risk,” with an expected annual economic loss of $2.3 million.

Priorities. In our setting of a roasting city on course for even more dangerous temperatures, we can contribute solutions by driving electric vehicles, installing rooftop solar, eating less meat and voting only for candidates committed to robust climate action. As a voting guide, it is critical to remember that nearly every Democrat and not a single Republican voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, the most powerful bill to fight the climate crisis ever signed into law. And without a livable planet, other issues will become moot.

Alan D. Northcutt is a retired Waco physician and Director of the grassroots climate action and education group, Waco Friends of the Climate. For free “Climate Crisis Is Here” yard signs, email anorthc@aol.com.