5 ways your Jersey Shore summers could change. (Blame this buzzkill.) - NJ.com

5 ways your Jersey Shore summers could change. (Blame this buzzkill.) - nj.com

Beachgoers sifted through the sand for shells, indulged in ice cream cones and set up foldable chairs on the bare Jersey Shore days before the unofficial start of summer began.

Inside an Asbury Park bar & grill, the tone was slightly more serious.

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Commissioner Shawn LaTourette assured a group of environmentalists, officials and press that the water quality along the coast was “ excellent” and ready for visitors.

Soon after, he issued some words of warning.

“Climate change is real,” LaTourette said at the New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium’s 22nd Annual “State of the Shore” event.

“It is here and it is now, right now,” LaTourette said. “And we all have to be acting concertedly, both to reduce our emissions — by transitioning away from a fossil fuel-driven energy system and economy — but just as importantly, is that we all have to work collaboratively.”

Even so, the impact of human-caused climate change on the planet is being felt and will be felt this year.

Below are 5 things to keep in mind:
Jon Miller, a coastal processes specialist at Stevens Institute of Technology and expert with the New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium, speaks on the ever-changing Jersey Shore coast during an event in Asbury Park on May 23, 2024.Steven Rodas | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

It could be hotter than usual

It may get beyond stiflingly warm this summer.

Forecasters cautioned Thursday that 2023 marked the hottest year on record and April was the 11th consecutive month with record global heat.

“We expect more extreme heat to exacerbate health conditions,” LaTourette said Thursday. “And that too is a function of our changing climate.”

Between 2000 and 2020, New Jersey itself had at least 181 heat stroke deaths, state Department of Health statistics outlined. The worst years were 2002 and 2011, when 21 people died each summer.

Legislation is currently being considered to bolster state protections for workers exposed to extreme heat. The state is also working on an action plan to address extreme heat.

Did you know that nine of the 10 hottest calendar years on record have occurred since 1990?— New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (@NewJerseyDEP)

And temperatures continue to rise!

Learn more at https://t.co/SgfQRYVpLp #NewJersey #ClimateChange pic.twitter.com/3MSsAepbjK May 8, 2024

Erosion is already bad and could get worse

It’s not a secret that Jersey Shore towns, especially in the south, have recently faced severe coastal erosion.

Erosion is a natural process, but what one expert described as “nuisance erosion” — what we used to see every two to five years — appears to be getting worse.

Nuisance erosion is defined as erosion tied to “frequent low magnitude flooding” — not a big-named storm like Hurricane Sandy.

It took place this past winter when smaller storms still meant significant losses of beach.

In Avalon, a substantial replenishment completed last spring was seemingly wiped away. North Wildwood is getting an emergency replenishment, slated to start in the next two weeks, ahead of a larger project that is still being finalized.

Chunks of Atlantic City’s beach are also facing the ocean’s fury firsthand now. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers replenishments take time and dedicated federal funds. A new project, slated to pour more sand in parts of the resort city, has yet to be finalized.

“We see (nuisance erosion events) quite commonly, pretty much every winter at this point,” Jon Miller, a coastal processes specialist at Stevens Institute of Technology said Thursday. “And the problem with those events is that they occur so frequently, the beach doesn’t have time to recover between storms.”

A study from last fall— conducted by Stevens Coastal Engineering graduate student Audrey Fanning — suggests that by 2050 the number of cumulative storm hours resulting in nuisance erosion will triple.

That New Jersey study is still in the peer review process. Miller noted that more data is being gathered for future analysis on sea level rise and erosion.
The beaches near the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino and the Ocean Casino Resort are closed because of severe beach erosion in Atlantic City on Thursday, April 11, 2024.Jim Lowney | For NJ Advance Media

It could be an ‘unprecedented’ hurricane season

Hurricane season may not be more active until the fall, but summer shore visitors should take heed and year-round Jersey Shore residents should prepare.

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, foresee — using long-range models — an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic this year with as many as 25 named storms.

That, federal scientists noted, likely stems from very warm water temperatures and a shift on the coast from the El Niño weather pattern to a La Niña pattern later this year.

“Most media outlets are calling for an ‘unprecedented’ number of tropical storms and hurricanes this coming summer,” Miller said, then pointing to between 20 and 25 named storms in some predictions. “For context, the average is about 14.”

While experts are cautious to link a specific storm to climate change, warmer temperatures are known to fuel stronger storms and help them sustain power as they make landfall.

Some climate models expect global warming will mean more intense rainfall and storm surges going forward.
This past winter was more active than those of the recent past, according to New Jersey experts who on Thursday, May 23, 2024 outlined their findings in the 22nd annual "State of the Shore" report. Waves measured at NOAA buoy 44009 off the coast of Cape May are shown in this figure from the report. Three storms generated waves in excess of 15 ft with the largest generating a 19.8 ft wave on December 18th.Figure via the New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium

Don’t forget about coastal flooding

Rutgers University found in 2019 that it is likely(a 66% chance) that the Garden State will experience sea level rise of more than 2 feet by 2050.

The sobering stats don’t stop there.

An independent researcher outlined the same year that over $15 billion worth of homes and buildings in New Jersey will likely flood once a year and currently about 16% of the state falls in a FEMA floodplain.

Residents, namely those down south at the Jersey Shore, recently experienced a more active winter, experts said.

Waves measured at a NOAA buoy off the coast of Cape May are shown in the above-pictured figure from the report.

“Three storms generated waves in excess of 15 feet with the largest generating a 19.8 ft wave on Dec. 18,” an excerpt from the report reads. In all, 13 storms off the coast of Cape May exceeded 10-foot waves compared to only eight that surpassed that threshold last year.

It’s not all bad news

Besides highlighting how global warming has been seen to influence Mother Nature, state and university experts say humans are managing.

Laura Kerr, a coastal resilience specialist for the Sea Grant Consortium, said work groups for the organization are also “tackling topics such as nature based features for shoreline stabilization, and the beneficial use of dredged material for restoring and maintaining the marshes that are struggling to persist in our ever changing conditions.”

NJDEP Commissioner LaTourette acknowledged to NJ Advance Media after the event that employing large-scale nature-based projects — a solution that uses native vegetation and other materials — has been done spottily in New Jersey.

Historically, New Jersey has relied on massive and periodic sand replenishment projects and in some cases towns have built physical structures on the coast to fend off high waves and storms.

Asked about using “living shorelines” more expansively, LaTourette said the state was “trying to seed it, both as a matter of investment and as a matter of more expedient regulatory treatment.”