3 takeaways from climate phenomenon forecast and how it could impact hurricane season
The climate phenomenon known as El Niño-southern oscillation may play a critical role in the 2025 hurricane season.
Recently, The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released the latest forecast on El Niño-southern oscillation conditions and their potential impact on weather patterns for the remainder of the year. These are the three takeaways from the original article.
1. ENSO-neutral conditions
According to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center issued on May 8, there is a 74% chance that El Niño-southern oscillation-neutral conditions will persist from June through August 2025. These neutral conditions occur when Pacific Ocean water temperatures are normal — neither below nor above average. The forecast also indicates a greater than 50% chance that these neutral conditions will continue through October.
2. Impact on summer weather
While the El Niño-southern oscillation cycle significantly influences global weather patterns, its impact during neutral conditions is minimal, especially for summer weather. Dave Dombek, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, said El Niño-southern oscillation-neutral conditions, “would not really have any bearing at all” on general weather patterns. During these neutral phases, the severe weather season behaves in a way that you would consider average, suggesting typical seasonal patterns should be expected.
3. Potential shift to La Niña
Though El Niño-southern oscillation-neutral conditions are expected through summer, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 41% chance of La Niña conditions developing between November 2025 and January 2026. This potential shift is significant because La Niña conditions can dramatically affect weather patterns.
Should La Niña conditions develop by fall, they could lead to heightened tropical activity in both the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Basin. According to Dombek, this shift could result in more storms developing and stronger hurricanes. The hurricane season could potentially extend into November or even December — longer than usual. Conversely, during El Niño years, the Atlantic basin typically experiences fewer than average named storms. Dombek emphasized that if “we’re transitioning into a La Niña” around August or September, “that’s something to watch” for potential hurricane impacts.
Generative AI was used to produce an initial draft of this story based on previous reporting by Advance/SILive.com’s Scott Axelrod. It was reviewed and edited by Advance/SILive.com staff.