By 2050, Italy Could Lose A Fifth Of Its Iconic Beaches Due To Climate Change And Rising Sea Levels, New Study Warns

Published on November 3, 2025

A new study warns that by 2050, Italy could lose up to a fifth of its iconic beaches due to the growing threat of climate change and rising sea levels. These cherished coastal areas, which attract millions of tourists every year, are at risk as shifting weather patterns and escalating temperatures cause sea levels to rise and coastal erosion to intensify. The report highlights the urgent need for protective measures to preserve Italy’s cultural and natural heritage, with implications for local economies heavily reliant on tourism. As one of the world’s most popular beach destinations, Italy faces a critical challenge in safeguarding its shoreline for future generations.

Italy, renowned for its stunning coastlines, from the dramatic cliffs of the Amalfi Coast to the peaceful bays of Sardinia, faces an urgent environmental crisis that could alter its entire coastal landscape. By 2050, as much as 20% of Italy’s beaches could vanish due to rising sea levels and erosion. This grim forecast comes from a recent study titled Sunken Landscapes, conducted by the Italian Geographical Society, which predicts that Italy’s 8,000 kilometers of coastline will undergo profound and irreversible changes in the coming decades.

The study’s models present a stark picture of Italy’s coastal future. If no significant action is taken to mitigate climate change and protect these vital regions, up to 45% of Italy’s beaches could be lost by the end of the century. This depends heavily on future carbon emissions and the level of effort devoted to coastal management policies. With tourism, local economies, and natural ecosystems heavily dependent on the country’s coastal areas, the potential for widespread damage poses a direct threat to both Italy’s natural beauty and its economic stability.

Central to this threat is climate change, which is driving the crisis. Rising ocean temperatures are contributing to the expansion of sea waters, causing a steady increase in sea levels. In addition, extreme weather events such as storms and flooding, intensified by climate change, are accelerating the erosion of coastlines. According to the report, Italy’s coastal areas are particularly vulnerable due to their low-lying nature and heavy human activity. Many regions along the coast are already experiencing rising sea levels, and a modest increase—of 0.3 to 1 meter by the year 2100—could flood vast areas, leading to irreversible damage.

However, climate change is not the only factor at play. Human intervention has worsened the situation significantly. The rapid expansion of tourism, which generates billions of euros annually, has driven overdevelopment along sensitive coastal zones. Infrastructure such as hotels, roads, and recreational facilities have disrupted the natural processes that replenish sand and maintain the health of the beaches. Additionally, man-made structures such as sea barriers and breakwaters, designed to protect the coast, often have unintended consequences, exacerbating erosion in adjacent areas.

The Sunken Landscapes study highlights several regions of Italy that are particularly at risk due to these factors. The northern Adriatic coast, home to popular tourist destinations such as Rimini and Lido di Jesolo, is already experiencing significant erosion. Similarly, the Gulf of Naples, Tuscany’s Maremma region, and Lazio’s coastline are all facing increasing vulnerability. Even the island of Sardinia, known for its pristine beaches, is predicted to suffer major land loss in the coming decades. Areas around Cagliari and Oristano are expected to be among the hardest hit.

Beyond the immediate impact on beaches, the study also highlights the broader consequences of rising sea levels and erosion. The Po Delta, one of Italy’s most productive agricultural regions, faces the threat of soil salinization due to seawater intrusion. This would affect a substantial portion of Italy’s farmland, with particular concern for rice fields, which are integral to the country’s agricultural economy. Additionally, the degradation of Italy’s wetlands, such as those surrounding Venice, will have not only environmental repercussions but also significant economic consequences, affecting tourism, fisheries, and local livelihoods.

According to the study, around 800,000 residents, many of whom are small-scale fishermen or owners of local businesses, could be forced to leave their homes due to the encroaching sea. In addition, nearly half of Italy’s port infrastructure lies in high-risk areas, putting vital commercial ports, such as those in Genoa, Trieste, and Bari, at serious risk. The loss of these ports would have dire consequences for Italy’s trade, further compounding the economic blow caused by the damage to coastal tourism.

To mitigate this crisis, the study proposes a series of bold actions. First, it calls for the “renaturalization” of Italy’s coastlines, which involves restoring natural barriers such as dunes, reefs, and wetlands that can act as effective defenses against erosion and rising sea levels. This approach, the study argues, is not only more sustainable than continued reliance on artificial structures like sea walls but also more effective in the long term. The report also advocates for a phased retreat from the most vulnerable coastal areas, with buildings and infrastructure being moved away from high-risk zones. In addition, stricter land-use policies and improved coastal management strategies are essential to reducing future damage.

The report stresses that Italy has significant resources at its disposal to fund these initiatives, including financial support from the European Green Deal and the country’s National Recovery Plan (PNRR). With these funds, Italy could invest in large-scale projects to protect its coastline, restore damaged ecosystems, and promote more sustainable tourism practices. However, the study also warns that time is running out. Immediate action is needed to prevent irreversible damage to Italy’s coastlines. As the report concludes, the next decade will be pivotal in determining whether Italy can safeguard its coastal beauty or whether large sections of its iconic coastline will be lost forever beneath the rising seas.

A new study warns that Italy could lose up to a fifth of its iconic beaches by 2050 due to the combined effects of climate change and rising sea levels, which are accelerating coastal erosion and threatening vital tourism economies.

The decisions made over the next ten years will have lasting implications for Italy, its economy, and its environment. The study makes it clear: without concerted action, Italy’s coastline faces a future that will be dramatically altered by the forces of climate change and human activity. Whether Italy can preserve its stunning beaches and iconic coastal cities will depend on the boldness of its response to this growing crisis.